We gapped down overnight under the support/resistance line (red) on spy. If we overtake that line today it's certainly bullish, but if we don't - we may start having our move down. Oil collapsing and various downgrades today may shift sentiment, but they can't be counted on.
The obvious target on spy is about 248 which would fill the lower gap (pink line). There's also a gap at 223, but I don't think we'll go that low so soon.
There are quite a few more gaps above on spy which gives me more reasons to think a double correction is probable - IF we start trending lower from here. Let's see how the day/week goes.
Good luck all
Sunship
The obvious target on spy is about 248 which would fill the lower gap (pink line). There's also a gap at 223, but I don't think we'll go that low so soon.
There are quite a few more gaps above on spy which gives me more reasons to think a double correction is probable - IF we start trending lower from here. Let's see how the day/week goes.
Good luck all
Sunship
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closer view
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Oil futures have hit the target I was watching. IF oil bounces from here, market may follow. Worth watching
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markets starting to crack a bit - we did fill the gap earlier today
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Not really a bull flag on futures, but hourly divergence may play out for another higher high overnight
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Futures cracked, next we have to see if the purple channel holds
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Purple channel breaking, best to wait for hourly close under the trendline -
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For those thinking of accumulating oil, Keep in mind that even with the new contract at higher prices, it's still in a channel and can get back to the lower channel again quickly.
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Spy may rally up to either pink line, but the gaps there should be heavy resistance and a good area to add swing shorts.
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Watching for either paths
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no break of support line, 280 still possible
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This is looking more probable. Upper pink line could still be in play if we get over the lower line successfully.
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QQQ selling off more than the general market today. 206-207 is heavy resistance on any bounce
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SPY at resistance, added some short exposure. Still think this may reach 280 on a squeeze, but not certain so scaling in very slowly and preserving capital
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IWM gap at 120 would not surprise me. All the indexes could finish "strong" today
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QQQ at strong resistance as well, but Gap above could get filled, keep it in mind
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Possible H+S forming if we make a surprise thrust upwards. Keep an eye out
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oil bouncing hard - taking the market with it for now
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oil bounced over 100 percent from the bottom - too bad I wasn't watching it :)
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We could have a these two paths for a retrace overnight/tomorrow. It could also just go straight down. ES broke the channel today and closed below it, so it should be resistance if we get back to it.
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Close to the trendline on futures, I suspect it may test it the first half of the day, we'll see - good luck
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We may pullback soon, or we may have a pullback and further rally up after, hard to say right now.
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Any gap fills on SPY (if we get there today) should be resistance
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If we fall from here, it would most likely give one more divergence on the hourly chart, in which case I would expect a larger retrace - like this
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No volume in selling yet, but if we pullback here watch the lower gap for support. We may see a double correction
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ES channel tested at the end of the day and rejected so far. Tonight we should have follow through on the rejection, or - it will go higher and test the channel again at a higher level.
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Trendlines I'm watching this evening. Support at pink trendline approx 2633 on /ES
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The Blue trendline is more valid should hold overnight. Target still 2633 area
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No drop overnight, recovering this morning. Blue, then Purple trendlines still in play for another retouch higher. I think today may be another creep up day.
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Gap fill on spy
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SPY gap fill and back test of blue trendline
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APPL reached .618 fib. Another point of interest.
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Futures tested it's purple channel again. If we get over it and hold, we are going higher. 2850 or higher on futures would probably give more confidence to bulls and squeeze out shorts.
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Channel trendline on /es is holding so far. I'd feel much better about a more serious pullback if we can get under 2800 (blue line) convincingly.
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SPY under the blue trendline again, if hourly closes under it "may" be a sign of more selling to come
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ok there's a sell signal
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Market is now discounting the news which is why it's a good idea to take some profit on any emotional spike - up or down. Close today will be very telling. Optimism still ruling the price as of now
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/ES under blue trendline, good sign for bears. Above 2020 again would be problematic for the sellers. So far trendlines are working to shape the price
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correction "2820"
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Very possible they pump it to 282 (SPY) at close. It's an important area - Resistance is there as well as the gap area. Let's see how it closes.
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Close below 50 MA with inverted hammer = bearish. Needs follow through tomorrow.
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Bounce overnight. If we continue the rally into today, we could get up to the channel trendline again. The 2810 area is resistance and it needs to hold.
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For me, if we get above 281.5 on SPY and hold, we're going higher for the day. Could go either way right now.
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subtle 15 minute bull divergence on SPY, and buyers keep stepping in (notice the wicks). Anyway, it should not be ignored. SPY could rally to resistance area and then pullback, we'll see.
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Grinding higher towards resistance. No bearish follow through from yesterday so far.
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Over resistance which now should be support. If not, bears have a chance.
The fact that bears didn't follow through overnight/today is a telling sign for next week. I'll have to reevaluate the analysis over the weekend, but right now a retest of the blue trendline on spy is likely at a higher price.
Have a good weekend
The fact that bears didn't follow through overnight/today is a telling sign for next week. I'll have to reevaluate the analysis over the weekend, but right now a retest of the blue trendline on spy is likely at a higher price.
Have a good weekend
