I Am NOT UNCERTAIN, 10th November 2022

٩ نوفمبر ٢٠٢٢🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ I'm borrowing that quote from the TV Series Billions. The market is NOT UNCERTAIN that things are UNCERTAIN. There's one thing markets don't like and that is uncertainty.

➤ The results of the mid-term elections in the US are UNCERTAIN. I'm no political expert but if Republicans win the House and Democrats win the Senate or with some sort of coalition, the division will cause friction with pushing through policy decisions. Furthermore, things may be undecided till December if there are run-offs due to the close voting...the UNCERTAINTY will only be removed through time.

➤ Incoming Inflation data is also adding to the UNCERTAINTY. Luckily, this will be out of the way by Thursday. Market participants will make a decision quickly.

➤ In the previous note, I said that the ball is in the Bear's court. Today, they pushed prices lower to form a lower high. This dents the chances for a continued uptrend in the immediate future.

➤ I've strengthened my bearish view by moving to a -34% short exposure. The maximum portfolio exposure is +/- 200% on capital, the level of highest conviction.

➤ Conclusion: By no means am I a high conviction Bear. We are only at the 1st innings. That I am NOT UNCERTAIN.