SPY Update, Bear market or what?

١٢ يوليو

Just my thoughts, not at all advice!

Trade your plan and as always, safe trades!

The historical ATR post:

١٢ يوليو

ملاحظة

Yikes, bailed on that position.
Not sure what the hell happened here :O

١٤ يوليو

ملاحظة

So seems like its going to go up first to snag that SPX target.

However, we should see confirmation into Tuesday.
The 2 setups identified on the hourly chart show a bit of a sell and attempt at bullishness into Monday followed by capitulation into Tuesday.

The other shows bearishness into Monday that recovers and goes parabolic into Tuesday.

The later being the confirmation we go to SPX target first, the former that its bearish to the 3 month SPY target.

Just waiting to see positionless at this time.
A lot of bullish continuation indications though from the chart and numbers, so I do suspect the bullish thesis is the correct thesis first.

١٦ يوليو

ملاحظة

Approximately 1.5% left to go.

١٧ يوليو

ملاحظة

I'm not getting excited with this sell because usually its parabolic straight back up the next day.
SPX has the same bearish 3 month target as SPY:


Right now its holding the bullish condition. We want to see it break this condition tomorrow and then I will short to the bearish target, 537 on SPY.
Not pulling the trigger yet because this market is just a ridiculous bull crazed mess.

Rather late and correct than early and wrong when you are trading contra-trend.

Tomorrow will dictate.

١٨ يوليو

ملاحظة

١٩ يوليو

ملاحظة

For today we may see a bit of a bounce, looks like SPY is holding its point forecast arima levels for the day (yellow line):


However cap there is 554 (80% level) and then 556 (95% level).
Meaning a close exceeding 556 is within only 5% probability.

For ES1!, I expect to see at least 5608: