SPY - It's Life or Death For Bears
تم تحديثه
In this post I would like to remind everyone of two critical points:
1. Overall market fundamentals are not very good because the situation in the whole world right now is not very good. The Millennial-themed Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was ultimately little more than a pretext to drop economic stimulus under because the economy was already #rekt in 2019.
2. The three major indexes have been in a bearish market impulse, but not in a bear market. Just because something goes down, even for several months, doesn't mean it's a "bear market."
==
A Caveat:
The situation in Mainland China under the Chinese Communist Party is not something you can see from the English Internet, or the other languages' Internet, or even the Chinese Internet.
What's really going on is extremely dangerous.
There's the dueling threats inside the world's oldest country of the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic and the collapse of the CCP.
By the time the news hits the west, most of the dominos will already be collapsed and the gap down will destroy every bull there is, everywhere, including banks and governments.
The 24-year persecution, genocide, and organ harvesting of Falun Gong by Jiang Zemin and the CCP is looming like the Sword of Damocles over Xi Jinping's head, and if he's smart, he'll dump the Party and the Babylon toads in the middle of the night.
If Xi Jinping is a fool, Gods will dump him and all of them all together at once.
It's coming very, very soon. It will be sudden. You are likely to be asleep when it happens because of the time difference between Beijing and New York.
==
I see on Twitter and in some other venues that there are people flexing about how they're goin' hard short at $445 and dumpin their whole portfolio. This area also happens to be the 79% retracement level of the most recent monthly dealing range.
The problem is that shorting a bounce at the 79% is either really optimal or total suicide. What determines which one it is has a lot to do with whether the MM has begun to take sellside liquidity.
The problem is that following the insane COVID QE, the markets had a 120% rally in only 22 months and really never formed any monthly pivots for funds to place their stops behind.
Monthly
Whatever the markets did last year was nothing more than an elementary retrace to the 2020 manipulation order block, which means that the MM's ultimate target is 100% the 5,000 psychological level and even possibly a David J. Hunter-style run higher.
So, we're really at a key point right now. The keyest of the key points. There's really only one question, in my opinion:
Do the indexes set a new ATH this year, or in 2024?
Two things to consider:
1. Markets have gone straight up since January, printing their Low Of The Year only a few days into '23.
(This is usually consistent with a very bullish or bearish impulse)
2. 2024 is the U.S. Presidential Election
So where we're at right now is make or break:
Weekly
For bearish anything to work, you need to see Friday's price action, which swept the August high by a few cents, to form a double top that can be targeted later.
Or you need to see it make a slightly higher high and very quickly retrace.
If you were to get a bearish drive, the target would be $365, setting a LOY, but holding the 2022 pivot, marking the lowest prices the market will see before they set their ultimate all time high in 2024.
However, if the markets hang out in what I call "the monthly zebra," a price area that is of significant note based on the monthly bars, then you can expect these markets to pump to new heights in short order. Shorts will be dead.
It would be one of those cases from Diary of a Stock Operator where "there's no price too high to pay" applies because it's going up and you need some Bank of Japan intervention in the JPYUSD-level stuff to break the momentum.
What this means is that if you missed the move in the markets up, there is no dip to buy.
If you missed the move on the way up, any kind of significant dip now is a short setup.
The long case for a new ATH would be to pay more in the $450 area.
But it's very dangerous. Things can change in this world at any time. Wall Street and the globalist controllers believe they are in control and are very attached to their power, but ultimately, Heaven will show its hand sooner than later.
Since human beings, especially today's modern atheists who believe in the laughable Theory of Evolution, only "believe in what I can see," then the Cosmos will show you reality.
But once reality unfolds before your eyes, it's too late for regrets.
It's the same as how when you're at the casino playing poker, neither the Dealer nor the House lets you keep betting after the River and everyone's Cards are turned Face Up.
1. Overall market fundamentals are not very good because the situation in the whole world right now is not very good. The Millennial-themed Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was ultimately little more than a pretext to drop economic stimulus under because the economy was already #rekt in 2019.
2. The three major indexes have been in a bearish market impulse, but not in a bear market. Just because something goes down, even for several months, doesn't mean it's a "bear market."
==
A Caveat:
The situation in Mainland China under the Chinese Communist Party is not something you can see from the English Internet, or the other languages' Internet, or even the Chinese Internet.
What's really going on is extremely dangerous.
There's the dueling threats inside the world's oldest country of the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic and the collapse of the CCP.
By the time the news hits the west, most of the dominos will already be collapsed and the gap down will destroy every bull there is, everywhere, including banks and governments.
The 24-year persecution, genocide, and organ harvesting of Falun Gong by Jiang Zemin and the CCP is looming like the Sword of Damocles over Xi Jinping's head, and if he's smart, he'll dump the Party and the Babylon toads in the middle of the night.
If Xi Jinping is a fool, Gods will dump him and all of them all together at once.
It's coming very, very soon. It will be sudden. You are likely to be asleep when it happens because of the time difference between Beijing and New York.
==
I see on Twitter and in some other venues that there are people flexing about how they're goin' hard short at $445 and dumpin their whole portfolio. This area also happens to be the 79% retracement level of the most recent monthly dealing range.
The problem is that shorting a bounce at the 79% is either really optimal or total suicide. What determines which one it is has a lot to do with whether the MM has begun to take sellside liquidity.
The problem is that following the insane COVID QE, the markets had a 120% rally in only 22 months and really never formed any monthly pivots for funds to place their stops behind.
Monthly
Whatever the markets did last year was nothing more than an elementary retrace to the 2020 manipulation order block, which means that the MM's ultimate target is 100% the 5,000 psychological level and even possibly a David J. Hunter-style run higher.
So, we're really at a key point right now. The keyest of the key points. There's really only one question, in my opinion:
Do the indexes set a new ATH this year, or in 2024?
Two things to consider:
1. Markets have gone straight up since January, printing their Low Of The Year only a few days into '23.
(This is usually consistent with a very bullish or bearish impulse)
2. 2024 is the U.S. Presidential Election
So where we're at right now is make or break:
Weekly
For bearish anything to work, you need to see Friday's price action, which swept the August high by a few cents, to form a double top that can be targeted later.
Or you need to see it make a slightly higher high and very quickly retrace.
If you were to get a bearish drive, the target would be $365, setting a LOY, but holding the 2022 pivot, marking the lowest prices the market will see before they set their ultimate all time high in 2024.
However, if the markets hang out in what I call "the monthly zebra," a price area that is of significant note based on the monthly bars, then you can expect these markets to pump to new heights in short order. Shorts will be dead.
It would be one of those cases from Diary of a Stock Operator where "there's no price too high to pay" applies because it's going up and you need some Bank of Japan intervention in the JPYUSD-level stuff to break the momentum.
What this means is that if you missed the move in the markets up, there is no dip to buy.
If you missed the move on the way up, any kind of significant dip now is a short setup.
The long case for a new ATH would be to pay more in the $450 area.
But it's very dangerous. Things can change in this world at any time. Wall Street and the globalist controllers believe they are in control and are very attached to their power, but ultimately, Heaven will show its hand sooner than later.
Since human beings, especially today's modern atheists who believe in the laughable Theory of Evolution, only "believe in what I can see," then the Cosmos will show you reality.
But once reality unfolds before your eyes, it's too late for regrets.
It's the same as how when you're at the casino playing poker, neither the Dealer nor the House lets you keep betting after the River and everyone's Cards are turned Face Up.
ملاحظة
What's hard about this trade, whether short or long, is $450 is the kill zone.$450 is where it will go for a bearish reversal on FOMC/CPI impulses and it's also where it will go if we're going to set a new ATH in short order.
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