SPY H&S & at short-term trend support - Be careful.
Hi folks!
As you all know the fundamentals behind the stock market rally is not great - and it is driven by one thing and one thing only:
All time low real interest rates (U.S. CPI - US10y is almost 5.5 percentage points - that is insane!).
Since the market has kept on going far longer than I expected, I have turned much more into T.A. in the last couple of months.
Right now, there are a lot of technicals signs warning about a correction imo:
- The massive wedge broke in September and was retested with rejection in November.
- We have a massive bearish divergence on both the 1D and the 1W - where the latter has historically signalled very large corrections.
- A Head and Shoulder pattern has formed - both it you count from the september and the the november tops (they were double tops).
- The S&P500 is now exactly at the support line since the september lows.
- The VIX is way too low according to the correction we have seen - which signals complacency.
As I have stated earlier, I have jumped ship a long time ago and only trade the VIX these days - However, I do not recommend this to anyone.
DYOR.
NFA.
I wish you all well :)
As you all know the fundamentals behind the stock market rally is not great - and it is driven by one thing and one thing only:
All time low real interest rates (U.S. CPI - US10y is almost 5.5 percentage points - that is insane!).
Since the market has kept on going far longer than I expected, I have turned much more into T.A. in the last couple of months.
Right now, there are a lot of technicals signs warning about a correction imo:
- The massive wedge broke in September and was retested with rejection in November.
- We have a massive bearish divergence on both the 1D and the 1W - where the latter has historically signalled very large corrections.
- A Head and Shoulder pattern has formed - both it you count from the september and the the november tops (they were double tops).
- The S&P500 is now exactly at the support line since the september lows.
- The VIX is way too low according to the correction we have seen - which signals complacency.
As I have stated earlier, I have jumped ship a long time ago and only trade the VIX these days - However, I do not recommend this to anyone.
DYOR.
NFA.
I wish you all well :)
منشورات ذات صلة
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.