Breakeven Vs Average Inflation
تم تحديثه
bondeconomics.com/2014/05/primer-what-is-breakeven-inflation.html
Break-even inflation is the difference between the nominal yield on a fixed-rate investment and the real yield (fixed spread) on an inflation-linked investment of similar maturity and credit quality. If inflation averages more than the break-even, the inflation-linked investment will outperform the fixed-rate. Conversely, if inflation averages below the break-even, the fixed-rate will outperform the inflation-linked.
10-year breakeven inflation rate = (10-year nominal Treasury yield) - (10-year TIPS yield).
It is called the breakeven inflation rate because you would (roughly) receive the same total return on TIPS as you would a nominal Treasury if CPI inflation averages that level over the next 10 years. Note that this estimate break-even rate will be slightly off for bonds trading away from par, and does not take into account things like the difference in financing costs. The true economic breakeven will be even further from this spread for shorter maturity bonds, for reasons I discuss further below.
inflation-linked.com/breakeven.html
Break-even inflation is the difference between the nominal yield on a fixed-rate investment and the real yield (fixed spread) on an inflation-linked investment of similar maturity and credit quality. If inflation averages more than the break-even, the inflation-linked investment will outperform the fixed-rate. Conversely, if inflation averages below the break-even, the fixed-rate will outperform the inflation-linked.
10-year breakeven inflation rate = (10-year nominal Treasury yield) - (10-year TIPS yield).
It is called the breakeven inflation rate because you would (roughly) receive the same total return on TIPS as you would a nominal Treasury if CPI inflation averages that level over the next 10 years. Note that this estimate break-even rate will be slightly off for bonds trading away from par, and does not take into account things like the difference in financing costs. The true economic breakeven will be even further from this spread for shorter maturity bonds, for reasons I discuss further below.
inflation-linked.com/breakeven.html
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This looks toppy, so this is futher justification of a big drop on gold comingملاحظة
we have a bearish divergence building here alsoملاحظة
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