Short Bonds - why, and market review

٣ ديسمبر ٢٠٢١

Simple chart - There is a small dotted green line up top showing you divergence in the RSI.

You can see what happened, Bonds went way up. Now we have a much bigger divergence the other way in red.

So this sell off that saw the ES touched the 4500 area three times this week reminds me of the September low at 4250 same price action - which thrust up 500 points.

Both the Nasdaq and E Mini Futures returned to almost exactly 50% Fib weekly retracement - not luck, not a sell off in my opinion but just enough to confuse and liquidate a bunch of people.

I am short vol through a long position in SVXY outright and short bonds through TLT through 154 PUT options. The market is off the lows but most likely there will be an opportunity Monday to get in.

My upside target 4620 on the ES Futures to take these positions off - however I think we can go to ALL TIME HIGHS before puking epically - as the Fed taper is happening but we'll only get the details at Dec 15th Fed meeting.

If we get back to 4500 area in the ES - I will look to take a long positions through Futures, however did want that risk on over the weekend.

The orange arrows are a measure of volatility.

Six hour chart.