US Bonds still bullish, end cycle move forcing rates to be cut

٢٤ فبراير ٢٠٢٠

TLT in the last phase of a cycle should return the biggest return in the longer term in this phase of a cycle. I think the US cycle peaked in 4Q18 that's the bottom in TLT, it'll be moving up until spreads 10Y3M will "reinvert" on the top with strong steepening process so > 350bps. So far 10Y3M is -10bps. Still very deflationary bust ahead.