What can we expect in the cryptocurrency market in 2024-2026

٢٩ فبراير

Today we have a rather interesting article with a lot of food for thought
Let's talk about the total capitalization of the crypto market.
In 2021, when the BTC price peaked at $ 69K, the total capitalization of the crypto market was $3 trillion
Yesterday, the BTCUSDT price touched $ 64K, almost reaching ATH, and the total capitalization of the crypto market is $2.25 trillion, which means that it is roughly speaking "behind" by 30%.
This can only mean that altcoins are just beginning to "break out" and the real "Bull run" is still ahead.

We have been in the cryptocurrency market since the end of 2016 and have "survived" many cycles in the market, and believe me, there will come a time when altcoins will shoot 30-50-100% per day in dozens, not just a few as it is now, and your eyes will run away in not understanding what to buy next, because everything is growing) Now we are just warming up.

What can happen next?
Further, the price of BTC can, for example, go into a broad consolidation in the range of $30-70k.
The "small money" will say wow, consolidation with a corridor of 100+%, and the "big money" will meanwhile take Bitcoin from the "weak hands" on fluctuations and accumulate their reserves.
Since the big money will not sell their BTC, they have a very effective tool to pump coins - buying altcoins in pairs with BTC. At this point, the price of altcoin/usdt will skyrocket exponentially.

If we look at the chart of the total capitalization of the crypto market, you can clearly see one pattern: from the moment of BTC halving to the maximum value of the total capitalization of the crypto market, 183 3-day candles pass. That is, roughly speaking, a confident bull run in the crypto market has already lasted for 550 days twice.
You might say that we can't compare these periods because big money is now entering the cryptocurrency market, and they will continue to drive the market.

But most likely, you have not been in the crypto market for long and do not remember what the narratives were in the previous cycles:
- In 2017, the market was mainly "rocked" by ICOs and pioneering venture capital funds entered the crypto market. If I'm not mistaken, ETH was sold at ICOs at either $0.30 or $0.50, and today it has reached $3500 - and this is probably the "most tenacious" project from this period.
- The entire 2018-2019 Internet space was teeming with reports that Bakkt would enter the cryptocurrency market and revitalize the crypto market and push for ATH updates. But no!) The crypto market was revived only in 2020, and then at the expense of retail buyers, at the expense of cash payments to the population to combat Covid-19. By the way, check out the movie Dumb Money, which reflects the events of the time when retail buyers punished hedge funds that were shorting the growing market! As they say, you can't go against the masses)
- Then in 2020-2021, there were the narratives of IEO, Defi, NFT, Elon Max with tokens and tweets that drove the market. There was something else, please add to the comments.
- And now it's 2023 and a new growth cycle with the main narrative at the moment - BTC ETFs and the entry of large funds like BlackRock into the crypto market.

By the way, at the end of 2022, we released the two ideas that this is probably the bottom and it is definitely worth buying:
1. How much can the Crypto market capitalization grow by 2025 at Nov. 2022
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/TOTAL/XI6HljKm-How-much-can-the-Crypto-market-capitalization-grow-by-2025/
2. Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency results of 2022 and plans for 2023-2025 at 30.12.2022
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/tbXeajWu-Bitcoin-Cryptocurrency-results-of-2022-and-plans-for-2023-2025/

Despite the mega rise in the price of BTC in 2024, Google trends suggest that the peak rush for search queries like in 2017 and 2021 is still very, very far away.
We also have a personal gut feeling, comparing to previous periods, that "strong hands", as they like to call themselves, who have sat for 2 years with a mega deposit drawdown of -60-80% and are now selling their assets at entry points.
And the "fresh and new money" is still "little" in the cryptocurrency market, perhaps it is already expensive?
Also, it's been a long time since the market has been nightmarized by news like possible large sales of BTC: Silk road, which was confiscated by the United States, MT Gox payments, FTX payments, and so on. As they say, let's be careful!)

If we believe the blue fractal that we have depicted on the idea's chart, the cryptocurrency market may soon begin to correct with a decline in the total capitalization of the crypto market.
But not super deep, only -30% to $1.5-1.6 trillion. Moreover, this does not mean that the entire crypto market will fall "like a stone down." Alternatively, the price of BTC, which now accounts for more than half of the crypto market capitalization, may show the largest proportional correction. Meanwhile, altcoins will adjust quite adequately in price, and then may be sharply "pumped" by pouring BTC or ETH into them.

Also, according to this fractal, this time the growth cycle may take longer than 550 days and last until the end of summer 2026.

Well, write in the comments what you think will happen to the crypto market in the coming months?
You can also put "like" the idea to subscribe to it and watch it develop together. And we will write our comments as the price moves.

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ملاحظة

Happy first day of spring!
February closed with a big green candle, giving BTC a +43.5% gain. This hasn't happened for a long, long time...

What do you think? Will March be red❤️‍🩹or green💚?