Why I am Cautiously Bullish On Tron (TRX) Right Now

١ ديسمبر ٢٠١٨

Hard to completely stay away from this market. Not really trading during this time, but I wanted to post an update on my TRXBTC chart, since I find it interesting that Tron is one of the few altcoins to maintain its bullish stance against Bitcoin in this bear market. It also remains significantly up since this time last year compared with many projects. Regardless of the FUD it gets, Tron clearly instills more investor confidence than many other coins. Since my previous analysis (linked at bottom), Tron has maintained its Bitcoin value. We also retested the rising diagonal support within the EXACT same timeframe I predicted, which was kind of fun for me to watch : )

Over the last couple of weeks, we've seen a big market selloff, and Tron remains down in USD value, but after breaking down below its uptrend line against Bitcoin (in blue), it rallied back above it. Now, we can always crash back down below it (currently at the 350 level). However, it is clearly showing bullish price action. There is a significant chance that this coin makes a surprise break to the upside soon, so I'd keep an eye on it. This is one of the coins I bought more of on the recent dip (bought at 318). Daily RSI seems like it needs to cool off a bit, but that can still happen after the next push up. Weekly RSI still has a lot of upside. I think a test of the pink triangle/horizontal converging resistance at 420 is in the cards, especially if Bitcoin remains stable above 3900.

On the bearish side of things, if TRXBTC goes below 349/350 and then the newly established strong support at 290, we will probably be seeing some more significant downside. It all depends on which way the market wants to go. I have a feeling TRX may be one of those coins to attempt to decouple from Bitcoin if the bear market extends for many more months with some serious sideways/down action.

Support:
350 (near term)
290

Resistance:
390
420
625
750
1000

This is not financial advice, nor am I a professional financial advisor.

Previous TRXBTC analysis:

-Victor Cobra

٣ ديسمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Still holding this support, despite the Bitcoin selloff, but just barely. If Bitcoin can't attract some fresh buyers here, Tron is likely to slide back down to the green support area. Something tells me today might be a bear trap, with the number of open shorts and the lowish sell volume.

٥ ديسمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Still looking good! We're comfortably above the blue support now, and it looks like we're priming for a test of the pink resistance around 399-400. Decent long opportunity:
BUY in: 360-370
TARGETS: 390-399
TARGETS IF RESISTANCE IS BROKEN: 420-625 (mid term)
STOP LOSS: 355-349, or depending on risk tolerance.
Remember, this is for educational purposes only and for me to practice setups.

٧ ديسمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

TRX is clearly holding its own during this bloodbath. In fact, it's one of the only major alts that has remained consistent in BTC value. This could signal a big move up soon.

٧ ديسمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Moving up towards resistance. Already hit my target between 390 and 399 (395 to be precise). Looks like we ned to consolidate a bit. Bitcoin ideally needs to maintain this mid-term low 3K price range...though TRX hasn't been super correlated recently.

٩ ديسمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Managed to hit 399, but we've fallen back and continued consolidating. The daily RSI needs to cool off, so we may see a pullback to the orange or blue supports here before trying to break out of the pink resistance.

١٠ ديسمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Since my most recent update, we've tested the orange near-term support, as I said would probably happen. Looking at the 4hr chart, RSI has cooled off a bit, but I wouldn't rule out another test of the orange support or a further test of the blue line before another bullish impulse.

١٠ ديسمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

A break below the blue line at 360 would invalidate the bullish outlook for now, but TRX has remained quite stable of late.

١٠ ديسمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Continuing to look very strong today. We could be gearing for a big breakout soon. Keep an eye on this one, and watch for a confirmed breakout above the pink resistance

١٤ ديسمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Look at that perfect target reached, right on time! My accuracy with this chart has been pretty good. How TRX behaves now will dictate its future direction. If we break out at the pink resistance right now, it will be a good sign. However, we can easily drop, since the market looks so shaky. If I were long from 300-350, I'd close a portion to lock in some profits, and exercise whatever other risk management strategies you regularly perform. However, this has pretty large upside potential upon a breakout. We'll see if TRX can go against the trend. Otherwise, it can pull an EOS or XLM and have a total meltdown. Be careful!

١٦ ديسمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

We've officially broken out of the triangle. However, there hasn't been a substantial price increase since we moved sideways outside of it. This is a little concerning, although maybe people are waiting on Bitcoin to confirm a mid-term bottom first. TRX really needs to get above that 430 resistance in order to see a large price movement. Otherwise, we can easily drop back down below the blue uptrend line (currently around 364). Still cautiously bullish. I'll be away for over a week, so I won't be updating this at all for a while. Be careful out there!

٢٠ ديسمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

We had a substantial attempt to break the 430 resistance, but got smacked down pretty hard. We really need to close a daily candle above there to consider larger upside. Short term traders have already probably closed for profit. I'm in it for the long term and added my last portion at 318, which was a great entry.

٢١ ديسمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Welcome to the breakout :)
If Bitcoin stays stable around 4K, we should see TRX push towards 625 soon. Look for places to take some initial profit soon if you've been long from 350 (or below), or if you're conservative trader who bought on the 430 breakout today.

٢١ ديسمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

We should face some resistance in the 2 cents area (approaching right now), so be careful. However, I think this has a stronger chance for a bigger push up, since we seem to be beginning a new cycle. Here's my previous chart for reference, so you can see what that may look like:

٢١ ديسمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

We're being held in check by this resistance here (high 490's and 2 cents area) so now would be a good time to lock in profits if you're a day trader and relatively conservative.

٢١ ديسمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Looks like we've blasted past this minor resistance as well. Taking some profit was really only for conservative traders, although you can ladder your sells as we keep going up too. As I said, the next real resistance is in the 600-625 area, but TRX really has a lot of upside potential based on this breakout.

٢١ ديسمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

Haven't made it quite up to the 600 zone. We got rejected pretty hard at 550, so this might be a good signal to at least take some profits and wait for a pullback (test of broken resistance). A big pullback doesn't have to happen here though, so be careful! Either way, I hope this chart has been helpful to some people. You can see why I was bullish on TRX, and also why we experienced a very large candle today on the breakout of 430. It had acted as resistance for many months, and when these resistances break, they are often not retested for a while (if at all). Look at XRP after it broke the .0015 resistance against ETH in September. That resistance was similar to this one, in my opinion.

٢١ ديسمبر ٢٠١٨

ملاحظة

If I were to take profit here, I'd take only around 25% of my stack, in case we go higher. That way, it guards against fomoing in again at the true top and losing a bunch of my capital. Always good to stick to a strategy, whatever that may be.

٥ يناير ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

We've broken and held above 550! We should consolidate here before the next move up. We have a lot of resistance in the high 500's, but after that, we could see a big wave up.

٥ يناير ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

Staying above here would confirm a cup and handle pattern, which could produce a move that takes us all the way up close to 1000.

٥ يناير ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

Even though we broke out of the cup and handle, we're finding some resistance at 600, which is close to my first original target for this trade. Between here and 750 there's a lot of resistance. TRX has spent most of its life trading BELOW this zone, so here is probably a decent place to lock in at least some profit. Should we break out from this green zone, we'll likely test 1000.

٥ يناير ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

Taking short term profits is for the day traders, mostly. I'm invested long term, and believe TRX still has a LOT of upside potential. It's one of the few alts to still be well above its November value.

٥ يناير ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

Pretty large pullback here, but this was expected at such a major resistance zone. Good area to take profit if you're a day trader and have been in since the break of 430. If we break below the earlier high of 554, this was likely the top for now, and will have to re-assess. Might divest a little at that point.

٦ يناير ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

If we continue to go up, I think a good target for a potential top is a little above this green zone. This would be a blow off scenario. This would mean not quite making it to 800, but well into the 700s. I'm sure people have pretty big sell orders in the 700 area.

٦ يناير ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

I actually ended up taking a bunch of TRX profits last night and putting them in NEO, as I think it has possibly more upside from here. Time will tell if this was the right decision. So far, so good. First trade I've made in a while.

٦ يناير ٢٠١٩

أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف

We still have a lot of potential upside, but I feel like we need a cool-off soon, even if we venture a little higher. Congrats to anyone who bought in the 200-300 range. The profits I just took were an 85% gain in BTC value for me, so I thought I should lock it in.

٨ يناير ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

If you're still in the trade, the first major target area has been reached (in the green zone). Anywhere between here and the green X might be a good place to start taking profits if you haven't already.

٩ يناير ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

Inching towards the target for at least a mid-term top for TRX. Regret getting out of this trade a little early, but I wanted to get in on NEO, since its weekly chart looks very bullish, and I'm seeing it as a longer term play with more potential upside from current prices. Time will tell if it was a bad idea or not. It's a bit risky, since Tron clearly has made a lot of progress versus NEO. However, I tried the Tron Wallet and it was disappointing compared to the Neon wallet. As I've said before, I'm not much of a day trader, but I do sometimes swap coins for long term plays when I see a potential opportunity. I think it might be too late for me to buy TRX again, so I'll wait for the next pullback. This might take a LOT of patience.

١٠ يناير ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

I expected another push up towards my target. We've reached it, so we should expect some resistance here. After this area, the high 900s and 1000 is next if it wants to go higher. For now, this is a good zone to take some profit if you've been in since the breakout.

١٠ يناير ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

We should be close to a top now, since weekly RSI has hit the overbought zone. This is crypto though, so anything is possible. Daily RSI is getting overbought as well.

١٠ يناير ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

And there you have it.

١١ يناير ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

New Chart: