Is the Recession Already Priced in?

١٨ يناير ٢٠٢٣

Hi everyone! 👋

Here’s my video reply to one of the questions asked in my prior video. I wanted to reply to everyone who asked questions, but my video ran way too long. TradingView has a time limit for videos.

In this video, I answer the question that Alt-B asked: How much of the coming recession has the market already priced in?

I also show the Mortgage Rate Premium chart. This chart shows how much higher the average 30-year U.S. mortgage rate is than the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond. By comparing mortgage rates to the risk-free rate, we get an idea of how much risk the market is placing on mortgages being issued today. The premium is the highest ever, looking back about 35 years -- even higher now than during the subprime mortgage crisis.



I hope you enjoy this video. Feel free to leave a comment below with your own thoughts about the current market. Also, feel free to ask any questions that you’d like me to answer in a future video. I will try my best to answer as many questions as I can.

Finally, if you enjoy my videos and want to get updates, be sure to follow my ideas, (I will post reply videos as an update to prior videos).

Thank you for your time in watching!

١٨ يناير ٢٠٢٣

ملاحظة

I apologize for the bad audio and video quality. I am still learning the ropes of posting videos on TradingView. I will definitely try to fix this in future videos!