Trend reversal on oil or huge drop

Macro looks like oil wil go down. More suply from iran and Venezuela, hollidays over, no heating needed yet. Maybe its almost fully prised in already.

On the TA side, it looks like oil is forming a trend reversal.
- Rsi is getting oversold
- almost at yearly trendline
- hitting pre war prices
- hidden bullish divergence on 4h and daily.

Shortterm (end of august)
I see it going one more dip lower:
- to hit the trendline
- dxy toping out at 110$,

Midterm (end of year)
before retracement and winter demand will push oil to revisit resistence trendline for 3th time in a row in q4 2022, right in time for the fed and ecb to.crash the economy to get demand and inflation down.

Longterm (2023+)
War over and Recession and oil back to the 60's.