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Despite all that’s been going on over the last week with Goldilocks ISM and Non-Farm Payrolls, FedWatch is remarkably unchanged:

The September FOMC meeting is priced with a 57% chance of a 75 bps hike and 43% in favour of 50 bps.

Probabilities for November and December meetings are virtually unchanged.

The terminal rate remains at 375-400 bps.