USDCAD: NFP price action determines key levels

٣ نوفمبر ٢٠١٩

Everyone involved in FX trading has their eyes peeled on price charts and fundamental data that comes out every first Friday of each month, when Non-Farm Payrolls data is made public for the month before. This creates volatility during the day, and also a very significant price level where the market reacts, either being attracted to or rejected from the level.

I've plotted these key levels on chart, with a vertical line showing the date of the NFP report. You can clearly see that when the market deviates far enough from the last key level, it will be drawn back to it over time...and that when retesting a level after moving away from it for a while, it will react when hitting it most of the time, helping us map how far and in which direction prices can move.

Right now the last short term signal in USDCAD failed, hitting my stop loss at break even after buying the breakout at 1.31634, and briefly seeing some profit following the NFP data. The dollar is acting weak accross the board which is an anomaly, and oil regaining strength. We should focus on currencies to determine if we need to hedge our dollar exposure in the equities portfolio, since although earnings in foreign currencies would increase if the dollar devaluates it could hurt stocks' performance even during a rally.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

١٠ نوفمبر ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

There was short term dollar weakness but it found support and was attracted back to the higher NFP levels above price. Fundamental pressure is strong so it's not easy to fade USD strength.
It's still useful to monitor the levels as they form to know where to look for a reaction when retested.

٧ ديسمبر ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

Support held on retest. Retesting the latest NFP level is usually a good trade entry, either long or short after the first retest from above or below it.