USDCAD: Where are the bulls?
تم تحديثه
With Yellen speaking today at 12:30 EST at the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia, there's nothing to do but sit on my hands...and get an early lunch, and wait for volatility to kick in more.
This move in USDCAD looks like it was caused by USOIL, which is in a range market between 50.08 and 47.75.
THE CATALYST:
Scenario#1: Two catalysts here: If there is a push down in oil at or near the top of its range AND Yellen's speech is HAWKISH, prepare for a USDCAD move up.
Scenario#2: Yellen is NOT hawkish and oil falls. The USDCAD will be flat.
Scenario#3: Yellen is NOT hawkish and oil is flat or breaks above the range, then USDCAD will continue to fall to 1.2800 (if it did not reach there.
The 1.2800ish is a really important level that the bulls will try to defend, giving me a possible 20 pip move counter trend to the upside; however, I need to see the bears weakening on the 1hr and 30 minute to take the trade around 1.2800, and to show that this falling knife is breaking apart.
This move in USDCAD looks like it was caused by USOIL, which is in a range market between 50.08 and 47.75.
THE CATALYST:
Scenario#1: Two catalysts here: If there is a push down in oil at or near the top of its range AND Yellen's speech is HAWKISH, prepare for a USDCAD move up.
Scenario#2: Yellen is NOT hawkish and oil falls. The USDCAD will be flat.
Scenario#3: Yellen is NOT hawkish and oil is flat or breaks above the range, then USDCAD will continue to fall to 1.2800 (if it did not reach there.
The 1.2800ish is a really important level that the bulls will try to defend, giving me a possible 20 pip move counter trend to the upside; however, I need to see the bears weakening on the 1hr and 30 minute to take the trade around 1.2800, and to show that this falling knife is breaking apart.
ملاحظة
This trade relies on oil, which is in near the top of the range. If oil breaks higher, then the support in USDCAD may faulter, especially, is the USD:The dollar itself is flat:
But we are right at our destination:
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