USDINR-Weekly Outlook-Venkat's Blog

Past week saw a narrow range of 81.79-82.31. The Monthly candle shows a bearish candle. A close below 81.60 favors further lower levels. It was indeed a short lived gain past 82 after almost 2 months. At least for the moment, it appears that the Pair seems to be in no mood to breach 81.60 on a closing basis. In such scenario we may expect a consolidation between 81.70 and 82.60. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

• The currency corrected after making multiple attempts to break 83
  Moves in Dollar Index-DXY does not have exact correlation
  The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30
  As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
  The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70.
  This range is continuing to be protected
  This week is crucial for the pair to break or bounce The pair has a tendency to make surprise moves when most in the market do not expect.
  The target for this move is 80.60 provided 81.60 is taken out on a closing basis
  
  

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.