USD/JPY: Keeping an eye on false breaks

On Friday we saw USD/JPY failed to hold onto intraday gains above 158 following the BOJ meeting, and close the day back beneath the prior 'MOF intervention' level to form a shooting star candle.

Prices drifted higher on Monday on relatively low volume, putting us once again on guard for either a false break of 158 or Friday's high.

We're seeing a simple countertrend move back down to the high-volume node around 157.30 or even 157, should US data surprise enough to the downside later today.

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Prices once again broke (yet failed to close) above 158 before reverting back to the previous MOF intervention level.