News background & trading ideas for 15/03/2019

١٥ مارس ٢٠١٩

Britain’s Parliament voted Thursday to seek a delay of the country’s departure from the European Union. As we expected the parliament voted “for” by a margin. The EU will support the delay Brexit until 30 July after voting on 14th of March if the UK asks for. That means that The UK will torment traders with news from the negotiation process, new parliamentary votes, etc. Our position on the pound does not change: we believe in the final successful outcome of the negotiations. That, however, does not cancel pound fluctuations both up and down.

Reason for oil growth: OPEC published the February report on the oil market. The most interesting thing in it - OPEC oil production in February decreased by 221 thousand b / d to 30.55 million b / d. Thus, the Cartel fulfills its part of the agreement on limiting production of December 7, 2018 by 105%. At the same time, a phrase appeared in the report, unambiguously showing a desire to extend the effect of OPEC + until the end of 2019 (currently, the agreement expires in June 2019). So, we recommend to buy oil on the intraday basis.

Russia is not having a great week. After the resolution of the European Parliament, negative for the Russian Federation, the Counter-Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Directorate of the US Treasury created a division that will deal exclusively with Russia. It is not about “an instant impact”, but about confirming our basic idea. Recall that we have been staunch “bears” on the Russian ruble for some time.

About recent economic events, we note weak new home sales data in the USA, which in January fell by 6.9% (analysts had expected growth of 0.2%). Despite dollar growth in the foreign exchange market yesterday, we believe that such data is a reason for selling the US dollar.

Today, the Bank of Japan has left the monetary policy parameters unchanged. Analysts did not expect any sudden movements from the Central Bank. Our position on the yen has not changed - we are looking for points for its sales including against the dollar. Moreover, the Central Bank lowered forecasts for economic activity in the country.

I relation to macroeconomic statistics the following day is interesting because of the inflation data for the Eurozone, as well as industrial production in the United States. View an index of the results of the University of Michigan is worth it.

Our positions and trading ideas on Friday are as follows: we are looking for points for selling the dollar in the foreign exchange market against such currencies as: euro, pound and Canadian dollar with the exception of the Japanese yen - we buy USDJPY. We also buy oil and gold on the intraday basis.