USDJPY and the Bank of Japan
Awaiting an entry.....
Japan has its monetary policy decision TODAY NEW YORK TIME
Food for thought:
No QE for the Japanese yen would could signal that (1) they are getting a little better? Or (2) Yen bank is "betting" that the US economy will be stronger than their economy anyway? Or (3) Other intermarket deviations and relationships contribute to waiting just a little more.
The BoJ waits. Their authoritative figures watch their economy's rise in joblessness and a rise in their currency. They sit and watch retail sales, inflation, industrial production and exports all fall in a three year span. Yet, in June 2015, Japan recorded its first trade surplus in three years due to the effects of the weaker yen and lower oil prices, which continued into December 2015. Subsequently, the PMI and consumer sentiment blossomed throughout December.
Adding to this mix, was the slowing of China and the fall of the Nikkei. At the beginning of January 2016, the yen was bought up by a herd of buyers; its largest since February 2012, according to COT reports. This signals to me, that maybe I should sell the yen also, but I didn't. I bought it around 116.80. Now, I am flat around 118.20, waiting to see what is next.
One thing that I am considering as the USD/JPY pair rises is that Japan is an export-driven country. They thrive on a lower priced currency. They are many factors that may offset this, but for how long? It is best for the Bank of Japan to suck as many traders and speculators in that buy the yen and then get the most "bang for their buck" so to speak. In fact, this is what they do, but when? I do not know. I remain trigger happy in this case if I were to join the herd in selling the yen. Another thing I am taking note of is the consensus of economists on the economic calendar concerning the BoJ meeting tonight EST. The consensus is that the BoJ will not to do anything tonight.
If this is the case, I will wait and see before I pull the trigger. If they do ease, I definitely be selling the yen. If they don't ease, it will all be technical ping pong.
Japan has its monetary policy decision TODAY NEW YORK TIME
Food for thought:
No QE for the Japanese yen would could signal that (1) they are getting a little better? Or (2) Yen bank is "betting" that the US economy will be stronger than their economy anyway? Or (3) Other intermarket deviations and relationships contribute to waiting just a little more.
The BoJ waits. Their authoritative figures watch their economy's rise in joblessness and a rise in their currency. They sit and watch retail sales, inflation, industrial production and exports all fall in a three year span. Yet, in June 2015, Japan recorded its first trade surplus in three years due to the effects of the weaker yen and lower oil prices, which continued into December 2015. Subsequently, the PMI and consumer sentiment blossomed throughout December.
Adding to this mix, was the slowing of China and the fall of the Nikkei. At the beginning of January 2016, the yen was bought up by a herd of buyers; its largest since February 2012, according to COT reports. This signals to me, that maybe I should sell the yen also, but I didn't. I bought it around 116.80. Now, I am flat around 118.20, waiting to see what is next.
One thing that I am considering as the USD/JPY pair rises is that Japan is an export-driven country. They thrive on a lower priced currency. They are many factors that may offset this, but for how long? It is best for the Bank of Japan to suck as many traders and speculators in that buy the yen and then get the most "bang for their buck" so to speak. In fact, this is what they do, but when? I do not know. I remain trigger happy in this case if I were to join the herd in selling the yen. Another thing I am taking note of is the consensus of economists on the economic calendar concerning the BoJ meeting tonight EST. The consensus is that the BoJ will not to do anything tonight.
If this is the case, I will wait and see before I pull the trigger. If they do ease, I definitely be selling the yen. If they don't ease, it will all be technical ping pong.
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