Looking to sell the UJ from 114.95...
Weekly gain/loss: +0.34%
Weekly closing price: 114.04
Over the past couple of weeks, the weekly supply at 115.50-113.85 has been on the radar. Although the sellers have yet to register anything noteworthy from here, this is not your average run-of-the-mill supply, as it has held price lower on two separate occasions so far this year. Therefore, there’s a chance that we may see history repeat itself.
Evaluating the daily timeframe, nevertheless, we can actually see that there is room for the pair to punch higher this week. The daily Quasimodo resistance at 114.95 is, as far as we can see, just begging to be challenged. Our rationale behind this approach is simply due to the amount of stops likely lurking just above the two highs circled in green at 114.36/114.39. Remember, a seller’s stop-loss order becomes a buy once filled and this is exactly what the big boys require if they’re intending on shorting from 114.95 (liquidity).
On Friday, the pair bottomed around November’s opening level seen on the H4 timeframe at 113.65, following the release of US job’s data. While the report came in below consensus, the pair quickly bounced back from 113.65, erasing all losses and closing the day a few pips above the 114 handle.
Suggestions: On two occasions now, we’ve seen price top just ahead of the H4 mid-level resistance 114.50. This, in our opinion, does not signify strong supply here, and this is largely due to what’s lurking 45 pips above it: the aforementioned daily Quasimodo resistance level!
For that reason, the only area that really jumps out at us this week is the daily Quasimodo resistance line. Selling from this angle allows traders to position their stops beyond weekly supply at 115.50-113.85.
Data points to consider: FOMC member Dudley speaks at 5.10pm GMT; BoJ Gov. Kuroda also speaks sometime today.
Weekly closing price: 114.04
Over the past couple of weeks, the weekly supply at 115.50-113.85 has been on the radar. Although the sellers have yet to register anything noteworthy from here, this is not your average run-of-the-mill supply, as it has held price lower on two separate occasions so far this year. Therefore, there’s a chance that we may see history repeat itself.
Evaluating the daily timeframe, nevertheless, we can actually see that there is room for the pair to punch higher this week. The daily Quasimodo resistance at 114.95 is, as far as we can see, just begging to be challenged. Our rationale behind this approach is simply due to the amount of stops likely lurking just above the two highs circled in green at 114.36/114.39. Remember, a seller’s stop-loss order becomes a buy once filled and this is exactly what the big boys require if they’re intending on shorting from 114.95 (liquidity).
On Friday, the pair bottomed around November’s opening level seen on the H4 timeframe at 113.65, following the release of US job’s data. While the report came in below consensus, the pair quickly bounced back from 113.65, erasing all losses and closing the day a few pips above the 114 handle.
Suggestions: On two occasions now, we’ve seen price top just ahead of the H4 mid-level resistance 114.50. This, in our opinion, does not signify strong supply here, and this is largely due to what’s lurking 45 pips above it: the aforementioned daily Quasimodo resistance level!
For that reason, the only area that really jumps out at us this week is the daily Quasimodo resistance line. Selling from this angle allows traders to position their stops beyond weekly supply at 115.50-113.85.
Data points to consider: FOMC member Dudley speaks at 5.10pm GMT; BoJ Gov. Kuroda also speaks sometime today.
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