Risk off to Risk on mode
تم تحديثه
Read this important article here
First thing when I read this article, I was happy but it was short lived.
The major US indices tumbled and caused a limit down which basically freeze all buying and selling as at this morning. Luckily, I scooped some last Friday and quickly adjusted my trailing stop loss to take in some profits.
So, I am using USDJPY as a simple hypothesis of the market sentiment. If this Fed news is received as something exciting and relief to the traders , then funds should rightfully shift from risk off such as yen to riskier assets like stocks.
Thus, if I long USDJPY and it moves according to the trend , then maybe I am right. If not, I should suffer a small loss as people are still uncertain and panicky and wants to park their funds in safe haven like YEN.
Then again, we must not expect miracles to take place immediately. Perhaps, the market need some time to digest the Fed's news and make some adjustment before we see a decent rebound.
It is exactly as the title says, if FED has fired their bazooka and if it does not work, what will ? Of course, Fed's Chairman ,Jerome Powell will say he has a lot more tricks on his sleeves, I seriously doubt it.
The next move is negative interest rate and perhaps printing even more money than 700 billion.
It is obvious that choosing to make this announcement earlier on Sunday evening rather than tomorrow, official meeting date - they are sending a signal to the market that they think the market is seriously in trouble and needed help, FAST !!!!
Now, we have both fiscal and monetary policies , practically all countries have announced their own share of it. If this collective efforts still fails to prop up the market, then we are going to see some real, real damage going forward.
All I am thinking is, can President Trump affords that ? If not, what else can he do to help ?
Any suggestions , guys ?
First thing when I read this article, I was happy but it was short lived.
The major US indices tumbled and caused a limit down which basically freeze all buying and selling as at this morning. Luckily, I scooped some last Friday and quickly adjusted my trailing stop loss to take in some profits.
So, I am using USDJPY as a simple hypothesis of the market sentiment. If this Fed news is received as something exciting and relief to the traders , then funds should rightfully shift from risk off such as yen to riskier assets like stocks.
Thus, if I long USDJPY and it moves according to the trend , then maybe I am right. If not, I should suffer a small loss as people are still uncertain and panicky and wants to park their funds in safe haven like YEN.
Then again, we must not expect miracles to take place immediately. Perhaps, the market need some time to digest the Fed's news and make some adjustment before we see a decent rebound.
It is exactly as the title says, if FED has fired their bazooka and if it does not work, what will ? Of course, Fed's Chairman ,Jerome Powell will say he has a lot more tricks on his sleeves, I seriously doubt it.
The next move is negative interest rate and perhaps printing even more money than 700 billion.
It is obvious that choosing to make this announcement earlier on Sunday evening rather than tomorrow, official meeting date - they are sending a signal to the market that they think the market is seriously in trouble and needed help, FAST !!!!
Now, we have both fiscal and monetary policies , practically all countries have announced their own share of it. If this collective efforts still fails to prop up the market, then we are going to see some real, real damage going forward.
All I am thinking is, can President Trump affords that ? If not, what else can he do to help ?
Any suggestions , guys ?
ملاحظة
Praise Lord, congrats to those who followed.ملاحظة
Congrats to those who longed. Now we have a double top and it might pull back on Monday. Extend the bullish trend line on your chart and you will learn that the bullish mood is still intact. USD buying is still strong so though I want to short this pair , the timing is not ripe yet. When we rationalise the "should" reasons, we again flout our own rules of trend lines. Has the lines been broken down ? If not, why think of shorting? Just because you have 101 reasons of "should". Remember, we are rewarded for making the right direction - up or down and NOT our reasoning behind it. Do that for fun, knowledge but leave that to the professional economists who still are not able to agree with each other if bear is coming/here or if bulls is staging a comeback.
ملاحظة
it is crawling up to form a triple top formation at 111.456 level. So, if you like , feel free to take some profits and adjust your SL.You can see from my other posts that USD is very strong and many emerging market currencies are suffering. So get ready for some countries' central bank intervention.
ملاحظة
we are taking profits now and leave the remaining run , expecting a short term correction.
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