USDJPY 6H / Will Speculators Rebuild Yen Shorts Amid Volatility?
Will Speculators Rebuild Yen Short Positions?
Recent CFTC data on FX positioning reveals that the net short positions on the Japanese yen (JPY) have decreased for the fifth consecutive week, dropping to 11,354 contracts as of August 6. This marks the lowest level since March 2021, coinciding with the USD/JPY decline to a nine-month low of 141.67 on the EBS platform. Just a month earlier, when USD/JPY was near 162, the net yen short positions had reached 184,233 contracts, the highest in 17 years.
The recent unwinding of JPY shorts presents a clean slate for speculators who anticipate a repeat of the price action seen after a similar yen-funded carry trade unwinding in late 2023, which drove USD/JPY down to around 140.
Market Volatility and Key Levels
Bullish Scenario:
To confirm a bullish trend, the price must stabilize above 147.825, with potential targets at 149.860 and 150.775, indicating a strong breakout.
Bearish Scenario:
The bearish trend remains in place as long as the price trades below the pivot line at 147.825, targeting 146.330 and 144.900.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 147.825
- Resistance Levels: 148.825, 149.860, 150.770
- Support Levels: 146.350, 144.900, 142.400
Expected Movement Range:
The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 148.830 and 144.900.
previous idea:
Recent CFTC data on FX positioning reveals that the net short positions on the Japanese yen (JPY) have decreased for the fifth consecutive week, dropping to 11,354 contracts as of August 6. This marks the lowest level since March 2021, coinciding with the USD/JPY decline to a nine-month low of 141.67 on the EBS platform. Just a month earlier, when USD/JPY was near 162, the net yen short positions had reached 184,233 contracts, the highest in 17 years.
The recent unwinding of JPY shorts presents a clean slate for speculators who anticipate a repeat of the price action seen after a similar yen-funded carry trade unwinding in late 2023, which drove USD/JPY down to around 140.
Market Volatility and Key Levels
Bullish Scenario:
To confirm a bullish trend, the price must stabilize above 147.825, with potential targets at 149.860 and 150.775, indicating a strong breakout.
Bearish Scenario:
The bearish trend remains in place as long as the price trades below the pivot line at 147.825, targeting 146.330 and 144.900.
Key Levels:
- Pivot Line: 147.825
- Resistance Levels: 148.825, 149.860, 150.770
- Support Levels: 146.350, 144.900, 142.400
Expected Movement Range:
The price is anticipated to fluctuate between 148.830 and 144.900.
previous idea:
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