Reversal At 11474? | #forex $EUR $JPY $GBP $CHG $AUD $CAD
04 DEC 2014 - Update:
Friends,
Important NFP data coming out tomorrow. Expectation favors softer employment data.
In the long-term, USDollar index remains bullish. However, the interim calls for unwinding.
Looking at the
USDJPY, model defines a high-target at 120.996 - This nominal target represents a low-probability reach, but high-probability reversal (i.e.: not likely attained, but if so, a significant decline should ensue).
The following chart is looking at a dual view:
1 - Top isUSDJPY
and
2 - Bottom isUSDJPY tempered by ES.
The filtered charted below reveals tendencies, such as sustained, but weakened rally within a bullish channel. The second point is a double-top formation, suggesting thatUSDJPY's rally weakened against its SP500 futures. The two would tend to maintain a positive correlation. However, if the USDollar bearish force strengthened against the implied market strength, I would expect that this weakness would pervade across other USD crosses.
For instance, we have recently looked at:
1 - The possible topping in
USDRUB:
(Source: tradingview.com/v/mly72Nnu/ )
2 - The potential near-reversal in
XAUUSD:
(Source: tradingview.com/v/bmSQEDux/ )
3 - A technical recovery in
GBPUSD:
(Source: tradingview.com/v/K20vQUOS/ )
4 - A long-awaited Elliott Wave Flat completion in
USDCAD:
(Source: tradingview.com/v/TZWtIyLW/ )
5 - A near-complete target-hit in
USDCHF at TG-Hi:
Source: tradingview.com/v/cFdnLaJP/ )
6 - A pending 5th wave completion in
EURUSD:
(Source: tradingview.com/v/7YuRvla8/ )
7 - And a similar
AUDUSD geometric completion in AUDUSD:
(Source: tradingview.com/v/xbIj5UD5/ )
OVERALL:
In other words, all of these charts are implying a pending reversal on the back of a weakening
USD, at least in the most immediate, smaller timeframes.
Most recently, the
ES analysis also pointed to a potential top, stomped at a 1.618-Fibonacci following a quasi-mechanical ascent, possibly connected to a multi-central bank purchase coordination, according to ZeroHedge.com.
tradingview.com/v/ffEGZOy2/
Directional bias rests on Neutral until clear sign of reversal emerge.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter: 4xForecaster
00000
Friends,
Important NFP data coming out tomorrow. Expectation favors softer employment data.
In the long-term, USDollar index remains bullish. However, the interim calls for unwinding.
Looking at the
USDJPY, model defines a high-target at 120.996 - This nominal target represents a low-probability reach, but high-probability reversal (i.e.: not likely attained, but if so, a significant decline should ensue).The following chart is looking at a dual view:
1 - Top is
USDJPY and
2 - Bottom is
USDJPY tempered by ES. The filtered charted below reveals tendencies, such as sustained, but weakened rally within a bullish channel. The second point is a double-top formation, suggesting that
USDJPY's rally weakened against its SP500 futures. The two would tend to maintain a positive correlation. However, if the USDollar bearish force strengthened against the implied market strength, I would expect that this weakness would pervade across other USD crosses. For instance, we have recently looked at:
1 - The possible topping in
USDRUB:(Source: tradingview.com/v/mly72Nnu/ )
2 - The potential near-reversal in
XAUUSD:(Source: tradingview.com/v/bmSQEDux/ )
3 - A technical recovery in
GBPUSD:(Source: tradingview.com/v/K20vQUOS/ )
4 - A long-awaited Elliott Wave Flat completion in
USDCAD:(Source: tradingview.com/v/TZWtIyLW/ )
5 - A near-complete target-hit in
USDCHF at TG-Hi:Source: tradingview.com/v/cFdnLaJP/ )
6 - A pending 5th wave completion in
EURUSD:(Source: tradingview.com/v/7YuRvla8/ )
7 - And a similar
AUDUSD geometric completion in AUDUSD:(Source: tradingview.com/v/xbIj5UD5/ )
OVERALL:
In other words, all of these charts are implying a pending reversal on the back of a weakening
USD, at least in the most immediate, smaller timeframes. Most recently, the
ES analysis also pointed to a potential top, stomped at a 1.618-Fibonacci following a quasi-mechanical ascent, possibly connected to a multi-central bank purchase coordination, according to ZeroHedge.com.tradingview.com/v/ffEGZOy2/
Directional bias rests on Neutral until clear sign of reversal emerge.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
-----
Twitter: 4xForecaster
00000
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