Short Turkish Lira

٢٩ أكتوبر ٢٠١٨

Turkish Lira has gained some momentum and now back to test the trendline,
this is a good sport with a high risk to reward ratio.
Also in fundamentals, Turkey still has high inflation, trade and govt budget deficits, so no reason for further gains.

٣ يناير ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

Lots has happened since first publication.
Interest rates managed to curve inflation down a bit, the rise to 24% is targeting a 5% inflation rate, but you can see the rate is converging to 20%, with a slowing speed downwards,
technically (inflation vs interest rate) it will head to 5%,

but remember this is a country ruled by increasing authority:
1- about to start a major war in syria (targeting to invade all syrian territory north of Euphrates as Erdogan promised Trump to wipe off ISIS, and turkey needs to invade that much of territory to fight ISIS in their remaining pockets), this is much bigger than what Turkey's mouth can chew, without major troubles.
2- reading a bit into authoritarians mind, Erdogan will not let the high interest rate stay that way, and his appointed son in law in state finances will start to interfere in the Central bank.

These two possible scenarios will PROBABLY occur at a much faster pace than the expected time the high interest rate will keep things in control, and will push for other hectic USDTRY moves (just as seen in early asian session this morning).

TP is Updated to 8-8.05 range (or 9.6 in very long term, will see when we first get into 8.05 , hopefully, whether to continue or not)

٢٠ أبريل ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

Update the TP to 8.3