Oil: Bottom's in

٦ مايو ٢٠١٧

I'm fairly certain the bottom in oil is here to stay, and we can expect a gigantic rally to emerge from the depths of this decline. Now that we had the biggest large traders' liquidation of longs, according to the CoT data, and also had prominent oil bulls give up, the ground is fertile for a situation like the previous bottom at 26 something when oil giant T. Boone Pickens called the bottom, to then quickly 'sell in disgust' triggering a gigantic buy signal for us wathing with astute eyes (props to Tim West, he was the one who spotted this): zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-04/four-days-after-predicting-oil-will-double-t-boone-pickens-sells-all-oil-holdings
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-04/oil-tycoon-pickens-cashes-out-on-oil-awaits-time-to-get-back

This was a great long signal for oil, and I think history will repeat itself now.
I will enter oil longs again, I recently sold in disgust myself, after the drop to 47.54 didn't slow down, going instantly to the recent weekly downtrend target zone I had published about before, and also, formed a strong rebound, a key reversal day, right above the OPEC cut production day low. This is a key level and has shown that there are buyers stepping in to absorb supply.
We can expect a rapid rally, out off the lows, with strong continuation for a long time.
I'll enter if we gap up, or if we make new daily highs at the open, averaging in on the next few days to accumulate a long term long position.

Best of luck if you follow me here.
Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.

Disclaimer: I'm long OXY, PBR, TSLA, GM, INTC, and soon oil futures, and other correlated instruments and derivatives.

١٠ مايو ٢٠١٧

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It appears like we nailed this one so far - USOIL chart

١٢ مايو ٢٠١٧

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That WAS the bottom in oil...watch it by the 25th!

١٢ مايو ٢٠١٧

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Hodl!

١٥ مايو ٢٠١٧

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We are right at the mode here, if higher, this could start trending up, big time.

١٥ مايو ٢٠١٧

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49.87 is the top of the previous OPEC cut day, a bit higher than today's high.
I wouldn't mind adding on dips, or just closing here and buying back on dips.
Debating on it, currently...I don't have an emotional input of my own, currently.

١٥ مايو ٢٠١٧

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You can close or hedge here for now.

١٦ مايو ٢٠١٧

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I closed and bought back lower.



Holding now. If we hold here and grind higher we can get a monthly rally after next month.

١ يونيو ٢٠١٧

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Holding at support after a selloff. The OPEC extension day serves as a reference point, together with the older levels and the monthly uptrend mode support.
The monthly can kick into an uptrend very soon, the activity in China is particularly interesting, and also the action in other commodities. All suggest a softer dollar and lower rates for longer...