Turtle soup breakout looks to lead oil into reversal

We were looking at this breakout a few days ago when OIL did 3.5% gain breakout above the 41$ resistance area. With very little follow through, this is looking less like a retest of the new support region and more like a false breakout leading into a reversal on oil which looks to inevitably lead it back under the 40$ region.

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In this idea, it seemed like a breakout but we also talked about the passibility of a false breakout and thats what seems to be happening right now. Expecting a reversal of oil prices of the next few weeks.

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Current breakout on short term time frame. Looks weak but could still break to the upside. Money is still on the downside as it seems to be stagnating too much with not enough momentum to carry upward

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To support this idea further, you can see the previous high shown by the 20D donchian channel shows the same potential for the new high we just made. THe red arrows marking the short opportunities