Good Afternoon welcome to a different type of post.
Let's clear something up immediately, this isn't a TA post, it's more informative than that. I am like a parrot when I keep repeating fundamentals will be seen before technicals which is exactly what has happened. I have marked the next price points for WTI and the potential for an ATH in a worse case scenario but we shall leave that on the back burner. From now on to do not expect technicals to be respected, expect volatile moves and if you're trading then the only calls you'll be getting are margin.
Financial warfare, what do I mean?
I covered this privately for members a while back and stated Russia was looking for an excuse to get into the UKRAINE as a big middle finger to NATO and every other country that said it wouldn't do it. Russia has semi-fabricated a story and stated they have conducted their military operation under self-defence. This was phase one, find a way without breaking the rules and terms of warfare, Russia has now done so successfully by saying the separate states are under attack from the UKRAINE army and Russian backed rebels are under fire.
What next?
Russia will go about it's business and do whatever it pleases in UKRAINE. It's like getting Tyson Fury into the ring Manny Pacquiao it will be a trample steam as Russia will not hesitate to use force when force is used on them. Every country was screaming we will do this, that and everything else if Russia invade, well Russia have invaded and now countries are saying they have not intention of going to war with Russia but it will defend NATO territory which is outside of UKRAINE as they are not actually official members of the organisation. The help which UKRAINE will get is military training, loans and weapons but there will be no "outsider troops" going into fight Russia.
So how will they fight Russia?
SANCTIONS! Again another thing I stated to members in advanced, Russia will be prohibited from using the dollar and European banking systems like SWIFT pretty much disabling the country and crashing the economy. Russia will respond and impose it's own sanctions on countries doing this and it will become a financial warfare. Russia is a huge energy supplier and it needs to take care of it's sanctions because if they cut gas supplies they would lose a huge income for the country with an already crashing economy. It's a game of chess.
Food for thought - Bitcoin is decentralized , China are allies with Russia and both countries are two major crypto holders. Russia get booted off the EU banking system and they could potentially look to BTC for a stable economic time period. Far fetched but possible.
I will not be trading anywhere near as frequently now due to the ongoing situation.
In the long run I believed the following;
If this is extended and it becomes a long and large game of financial warfare there will be economic downfall worldwide and we can expect a recession, sound familiar? yes cause I said this ages ago as well. Now this "WAR" isn't the downfall of the economies in the long run, it's COVID-19 it always was and always will be. How can the world go through a pandemic and yet national index funds make new ATH? mass money printing is your answer. Money was printed keeping business, economies and just society in general floating and we will have to pay at some point. Now what is easier for world leaders of their countries? We are in a recession because COVID was not managed properly and we printed money because there was no choice OR Russia started a "WAR". I know which they will choose and Russia will be the scapegoat for the economic fallout.
Main points to take away:
Russia invaded in self defence
Ukraine will/is responding
Countries will assist in training, weapon supply and loans but I am 99.9% certain there will be no "outsider troops" attacking Russia and this WOULD trigger a world war and in this day and age it is not worth it.
USA and other countries have stated they will not fight Russia
This is a game of chess
This could be the start of a worldwide recession
Russia will take the blame of the recession
I hope this puts some at ease from all the media hype stating WW3. This is literally the last thing that would even be considered and we are still in the early stages. You can rule out a another world war.
We can expect continuous wild moves across USOIL, GOLD, CRYPTO, INDEX FUNDS AND DXY due to the ongoing situation. Use the signature below to keep up with us.