US Oil Market Outlook: Bearish Momentum Indicate Further Decline

The 4-hour chart of WTI Crude Oil (TVC: USOIL) reveals a well-defined market structure transition from bullish to bearish. Initially, the price action exhibited a strong uptrend, characterized by the formation of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). However, a break of structure (BOS) marked the onset of a reversal, leading to the emergence of lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL), confirming the shift to a downtrend.

A key technical observation is the presence of a price gap near the highest point, which often signifies inefficiency in the market and the potential for price retracements in the future. Furthermore, the highlighted resistance zone around the $72.49–$73.50 range has proven to be a strong supply area, repeatedly rejecting bullish attempts to break above it. This resistance, coupled with price trading below the 50-period and 200-period moving averages, reinforces the bearish bias.

The price has now breached the $71.78 level, accelerating downward momentum. The next significant area of interest lies at the identified support level around $69.36, which serves as the primary target area. If selling pressure remains dominant, further declines may be anticipated.

Volume analysis further substantiates the bearish outlook, as recent price drops have been accompanied by increased selling activity. The combination of structural shifts, resistance validation, and moving average positioning strongly suggests that the downward trajectory is likely to persist unless the price reclaims and sustains above the resistance zone.

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