Oil High risk High reward trade

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Oil made a huge dump the past few weeks and is around a long term support level now. It made a bullish wedge but it even broke below it. There are 2 options here, if we don't move up soon, it could probably drop a whole lot more. But with a possible false break out, the point where we are now, there is certainly a chance it will move up again. Making it a bear trap move.

This is what i am trying to do hear, trade the possible bear trap move. Because of the high risk i will start with a size of 25% at on of those 2 blue entry zones. If we get the lower one, i will increase on the way, if we start to break resistance levels. Otherwise i will just risk the small amount. My stop level will be around $1, while the reward can be 5 to 7 times that. If I am right, we could see a short squeeze happening next week. So risking a very small amount for a possible very big win.


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Previous analysis:

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Now just sit and wait, will increase if we get around 51.5/52

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So far looking to go as planned. Not seen a big move up yet, but that could still happen. Tricky point here now, as we can see it is moving inside a small channel now. So we should move see a break upwards soon. Stop is still at the same level (red zones). We should see a big move happen soon, within 2 days, otherwise the wedge play will probably fail.

The first step of the bear trap move has been made, that we are inside the wedge again. Now we still need that counter move to the upside

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The channel broke up, successful pullback and moving up again. Now needs to break this red resistance.

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Had some big bounces up and down now. This is not the shape i thought we would get to see. Starting to look more like a bear flag now. The wedge might not even have been in play, since we have not seen a real strong rally yet.

I am decreasing the size a bit around break even and will use the original stop loss. So if it fails, still a small loss. I might increase again if we do really start to move up.