vix should rebound, but continue falling

٢٨ سبتمبر ٢٠٢٢

the hourly is looking oversold, so id imagine we have some rebound in vix, but the overall daily trend is threatening to confirm return to bear vix while broader market bounces. if we get spx, ndx making new lows of day simultaneously with multiple sectors like xlf, soxx in the red a return to bull vix could happen (highlighted areas where nadaraya watson envelope turns up). solid horizontals are targets, dashed line is pivot.