Days Before Shorting Oil

If movements complete, probably 7-10 days, as I'm thinking then I'll short. Seems like it should swing up to $52 level (+/- 0.50) before bull move stalls and then moving down to $48 level at least. However, if it moves up to $53, on level with previous swing high, then I will not be interested in shorting.
Looking at:
- Isometric movements from the previous swing
- Some Fib. ratios
- General outlook bearish on

.