XAU USD - October outlook towards 2023

١٧ أكتوبر ٢٠٢٢

G'day,

Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.

A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Short due to the overall monthly supply in control, until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - shorts are held.

Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. However, note, at current we are awaiting confirmation of a Bearish move.

Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Orange = Daily
White = Structural move down

Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence.

Monthly

• Rejection from a double top or retest of the supply has allowed the free move of Gold to establish Impulses on the downtrend.
  
• Price has created a consecutive 6 bearish candles from April 2022, which matches structure of April 2020. Now, the correlation here between SPX & XAU shows a bullish run towards the equal high for XAU in 2020, and shows the departure sell to present towards the PCP in a Drop base drop scenario at the first monthly landing zone or this will form the pivot point whereby price will use probability and confirmation rules to react off said level to create a new long structure.
  

Further Monthly


Weekly

• The OL supply has created an impulse of four consecutive weeks, pivoted back to a reversion point (aligning to the structure left with range highs at resistance levels).
  
• The curve has also indicated with the lower high formed on the weekly pointing to $1995 - subject to the curve creation here - price will look to test said curve at different positional points which forms using reversion pivots towards 50-61.8% using the Fibonacci sequence.
  

Please note the zoomed in trading range below where white boxes, represent the trading range.



Scaled in weekly


Daily
Red box represents untapped room for shorting - looking left provides the clear price drop still available for the next zone.
The daily chart as indicated a smoother curve which connects multiple lower highs where price has failed to 'tap' the curve keeping the strong.
The chart below shows the (ii) shows the resistance (PCP) daily levels which allow the strategy of a Drop Base Drop scenario to continue with the structure cycle occurring multiple times (to present) we are on cycle three. This current status of the structure shows a strong lower high formation into the Fresh supply level and a new sell off zone is ready to be anchored. Following the rules of supply and demand zones - this supply will now look to test the range low at the daily demand between $1600 - 1620.


(ii)


Do you enjoy the setups?

• Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
  
• Focus on technical output not fundamentals
  
• Focus on investing for long term positional moves
  
• Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
  If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment.
  To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
  

Thanks,
LVPA MMXXII