Gold is Targeting #1,900.80 psychological barrier

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Gold's general commentary: Once again I witnessed the dynamics of Buying Low’s and Selling High’s (Investment banks classic Trading strategy), as the Buying momentum on Hourly 1 chart failed after the #1,935.80 Top’s. Gold continues to lose with every Hourly candle and as expected, Fundamental dust eases and Gold is on #4-session Selling spree. Main reasons for current variance are Bond Yields on recent High's and Overbought conditions on Gold, as an result Gold rose with Daily chart’s Bearish Gap fill (as long as Bond Yields continue with the Hourly 4 chart’s soaring, Gold is a Sell option), as Bond Yields (Inflation on additional # +5.3%) Resistance zone break added significant Selling pressure on Gold. It is vital to understand that with the risks involved on a Weekly scale, only if #1,952.80 is crossed Intra-day, I can note with certainty that the Bullish reversal is in continuation (less likely).


Fundamental analysis: My estimation shows that the base case scenario is even extending the Price-action to #1,882.80, but it is too early to mention such Low levels since #1,900.80 Daily chart’s Support (psychological barrier) is still preserved. Gold is on a tight balance at the moment, positively biased by the pullback on world equities, but still on negative cycle due to the continuous High’s on Bond Yields. Gold always respects it’s variances and Long-term cycles as for now, trend is fully Bearish right on the current fractal (Short-term), retracement level since last August's bottom. If the Lower High’s Lower zone breaks however, I will be looking at the very real possibility of a new #1,882.80 test, and by my estimation, this is far away from maximum of Bearish correction if occurs. My previous Selling orders have been successful and also what I did is - I tried to exploit key Daily chart’s Supports (pressure points). As I expect Fed to deliver hawkish stance, which may heavily pressure Gold, I maintain my #1,900.80 Target. It is very possible that Gold will be kept is tight range towards Fed minutes, and then make a move. Fed is pressured into a corner as I am certain that they are unable to fight on many fronts (Russian invasion, ever-growing Inflation) and that's why I expect hawkish stance to be revealed.


Technical analysis: Gold broke the #1,935.80 Support zone (pressure point) with ease, which has now turned into a Short-term Resistance as the first test on the previous Hourly 4 chart’s candle was merely unsuccessful. The next barrier on my focus is the #1,900.80 level, which I expect to be broken with exact the same (relative) ease as the Bond Yields just formed the very Bullish formation and if recovery candle continues, next level of utmost importance on Gold should be #1,882.80 configuration, and break of in extension should eye #1,827.80 (July #16 variance). As a result, I believe the current Price-action level represents solid new Selling opportunity. If my pattern is postponed and Gold breaks the #1,952.80 Resistance (really slim chances) then Sell back the uptrend, then I have to wait for potential contact with the #1,935.80 once again (will then represent Support) to Sell Gold again with short Stops regarding Short-term basis. January #31 trendline is invalidated as Gold is comfortably Trading below it, however Investors are in anticipation of Fed rate release. Current bias maintains my Selling outlook, as Daily chart points to aggressive takedown in continuation ahead. Personally, I believe that the main correlating asset is switched as Gold is more closely tied to the Bond Yields lately and should Trade on the opposite (reversely diagonal) direction once it moves against from Gold (if Gold continues the decline, Bond Yields should benefit). From Bond Yields perspective, Gold remains strongly Bearish (heavily pressured). Daily chart constitutes that current Selling sequence may deliver an April - May correctional bottom around #1,860.80 - #1,870.80 belt. Gold is already # -8.00% from recent Top’s and haven’t got intention to alter the downtrend.