On Friday, while analyzing the 4-hour chart, we observed that Gold managed to rise above 2475, indicating the start of a bullish trend. In our previous analysis, we mentioned that as long as Gold remained below 2475, it was considered to be in a bearish channel.
On the 30-minute chart, we observed that XAUUSD began rising from 2486 within a parallel channel. This upward movement was driven by better-than-expected US data, which helped counterbalance the negative impact of weaker-than-expected July NFP.
With strong bullish momentum, Gold broke through the key psychological level of 2500, which coincided with a wedge pattern breakout. It then reached a new all-time high (ATH) of 2509.733 and is currently trading around 2508.140.
Analyzing lower timeframes is essential for understanding market movements. On the 30-minute chart, Gold has broken out of a parallel channel to the downside and might test the 8/8 Murray level at 2500, which has become a robust support. Given the strength of this support at Murray 8/8 (2500), Gold could potentially move toward the Murray +1/8 overbought zone at 2519.
As we observe, XAUUSD has formed a Rising Wedge pattern, broken out of the parallel channel, made divergence on 30min, 1h chart and is approaching the overbought zone of Murray Math, which is likely to increase downside pressure. If the precious metal manages to break the ultimate support at the Murray 8/8 level of 2500, our next target will be the Murray 7/8 level at 2480. This is a weak minor support level, so while the price might stall or reverse temporarily, it is likely to attempt to break through this level after a partial rise due to the weak support.
When Gold remains below 2480, the downside pressure will increase, potentially leading to a break of the strong support at the Murray 6/8 level of 2460. As long as Gold stays below 2500 and 2480, the outlook remains bearish. However, if Gold falls below 2460, it could continue all the way down to the psychological level of ultimate support at Murray 0/8, 2343.
It's important to note that if Gold stays above the ultimate support at Murray 8/8, the chances of a rise to the +1/8 overbought zone and the +2/8 extreme overbought zone at 2539 will increase.
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For entry and exit points, it’s recommended to buy near support or resistance levels and use stop-loss orders just below or above these levels to minimize potential losses if the market moves against your trade.
These levels are effective on timeframes ranging from 30 minutes to 5 minutes.
Significant resistance levels:
• 2539
• 2519
• 2558
Significant support levels:
• 2500.00
• 2480.42
• 2460.93
• 2441.40
• 2421.87
• 2402.34
• 2382.84
• 2363.28
• 2343.75