THE KOG REPORT - FOMC

٣١ يناير

The KOG REPORT – FOMC

This is our view for FOMC, please do your own research and analysis to make an informed decision on the markets. It is not recommended you try to trade the event if you have less than 6 months trading experience and have a trusted risk strategy in place. The markets are extremely volatile, and these events can cause aggressive swings in price.

On Sundays report we said we had 3 levels in mind for the week ahead. 2010-12, 2030-35 and extension level 2045-50. It’s this level here we were expecting a move into for a potential tap and bounce, however, on Monday we activated long and took our trades from the 2018 completing another Excalibur target today around 2043. We’re still within the plan on the KOG Report, but FOMC is likely to throw us some curve balls, so we’ll have to play the cards we’re dealt for the rest of the week!

So, for todays move we’re still looking at extreme levels, not only due to FOMC, which may already be priced in, but also for NFP. We’re going to highlight the above resistance level as 2060-5 as a potential target level from support regions below, that’s if the price level is not touched during the rest of the week. This now turns 2030-35 into support on the flip which could be a level they dip into on the move, to then continue the move to the upside, before we then see a reaction in price.

Pre-event plan, we’re going to stick with one scenario, if we get it we’re in, if not, we’re happy to sit and wait for the right set up. If you’ve taken enough from the market already, please also do the same. We’ll be looking for price to push up into the 2060-65 region and hold, this level we feel holds an opportunity to short the market back down into the 2050-45 price point, and then below that 2030-35. Price will need to break below the 2030 level to complete the move to the downside, as we initially wanted in the KOG report on Sunday targeting the break of 2000!

Price breaks above 2060-65, we’ll sit and wait for tomorrow and let Excalibur activate.

KOG’s bias for the event:

Bullish above 2030 with targets above 2060 and above that 2065

Bearish on break of 2030 with target below 2010

Please use this as a guide, FOMC is most likely priced in. It’s the press conference 30mins into the hour where the market will be looking for clues to future economic news. We may see some late sessions movement across the markets, so please make sure you have a strict risk model in place, if you’re going to try and trade it. Otherwise, sit it out, wait for them to move the market to where they want to, then look for the right set up at the right time.


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As always, trade safe.

KOG