XAUUSD GOLD Small Correction and Potential Bull
29/10:
Based on the statistical analysis of specific times that may indicate potential strengthening or weakening for USD and GBP:
00:00 (USD) - 3-Month and 5-Year Note Auction:
USD Strengthening: Treasury yields have increased, showing investor interest in high-yield assets. This usually raises demand for the US dollar.
Potential USD Strengthening: USD is likely to strengthen around the time of these auctions.
09:30 (SGD) - Unemployment Rate:
Neutral for USD and GBP: This data is more relevant for SGD, so the impact on USD or GBP is limited.
14:00 (GBP) - Nationwide HPI m/m and y/y:
GBP Weakening: The y/y HPI decrease from 3.2% to 1.7% indicates a slowdown in the UK property sector, which could be seen as negative for GBP.
Potential GBP Weakening: GBP may weaken after this release.
16:30 (GBP) - BoE Data (Consumer Credit, Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals):
Potential GBP Weakening: A decline in consumer credit and mortgage approvals indicates reduced economic activity, which could weaken GBP due to financial instability.
GBP Weakening Timing: Around 16:30.
19:30 (USD) - Wholesale Inventories, Goods Trade Balance:
USD Weakening: A larger-than-expected trade deficit is generally negative for USD as it indicates trade imbalances.
Potential USD Weakening: USD may weaken around 19:30.
20:00 (USD) - HPI and S&P/CS HPI Composite-20:
Limited USD Strengthening: A stable housing sector usually provides limited positive sentiment for USD.
Potential USD Strengthening: Around 20:00, but with likely minor impact.
21:00 (USD) - JOLTS Job Openings and CB Consumer Confidence Index:
Potential USD Weakening: A decline in JOLTS Job Openings suggests weakness in the labor market, which could negatively impact USD.
USD Weakening Timing: USD may weaken around 21:00.
22:30 (USD) - 52-Week Bill Auction:
USD Strengthening: Rising yields in the 52-week Treasury bill auction could attract investors to USD.
Potential USD Strengthening: USD may strengthen around 22:30.
Conclusion on Gold Price Movement:
Likelihood of Gold Strengthening: 60%
Main Factors: Uncertainty in the US labor market (decline in JOLTS Job Openings), a larger-than-expected trade deficit, and weak consumer and financial data from the UK, which could increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Likelihood of Gold Weakening: 40%
Main Factors: USD strengthening driven by Treasury auction yields (3-Month, 5-Year, and 52-Week Bill Auction) attracting investors, as well as stability in the US property sector, which may limit interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.
Summary:
Overall, the probability of gold strengthening is higher (60%) than of it weakening (40%), mainly due to economic uncertainties boosting the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.
Based on the statistical analysis of specific times that may indicate potential strengthening or weakening for USD and GBP:
00:00 (USD) - 3-Month and 5-Year Note Auction:
USD Strengthening: Treasury yields have increased, showing investor interest in high-yield assets. This usually raises demand for the US dollar.
Potential USD Strengthening: USD is likely to strengthen around the time of these auctions.
09:30 (SGD) - Unemployment Rate:
Neutral for USD and GBP: This data is more relevant for SGD, so the impact on USD or GBP is limited.
14:00 (GBP) - Nationwide HPI m/m and y/y:
GBP Weakening: The y/y HPI decrease from 3.2% to 1.7% indicates a slowdown in the UK property sector, which could be seen as negative for GBP.
Potential GBP Weakening: GBP may weaken after this release.
16:30 (GBP) - BoE Data (Consumer Credit, Money Supply, Mortgage Approvals):
Potential GBP Weakening: A decline in consumer credit and mortgage approvals indicates reduced economic activity, which could weaken GBP due to financial instability.
GBP Weakening Timing: Around 16:30.
19:30 (USD) - Wholesale Inventories, Goods Trade Balance:
USD Weakening: A larger-than-expected trade deficit is generally negative for USD as it indicates trade imbalances.
Potential USD Weakening: USD may weaken around 19:30.
20:00 (USD) - HPI and S&P/CS HPI Composite-20:
Limited USD Strengthening: A stable housing sector usually provides limited positive sentiment for USD.
Potential USD Strengthening: Around 20:00, but with likely minor impact.
21:00 (USD) - JOLTS Job Openings and CB Consumer Confidence Index:
Potential USD Weakening: A decline in JOLTS Job Openings suggests weakness in the labor market, which could negatively impact USD.
USD Weakening Timing: USD may weaken around 21:00.
22:30 (USD) - 52-Week Bill Auction:
USD Strengthening: Rising yields in the 52-week Treasury bill auction could attract investors to USD.
Potential USD Strengthening: USD may strengthen around 22:30.
Conclusion on Gold Price Movement:
Likelihood of Gold Strengthening: 60%
Main Factors: Uncertainty in the US labor market (decline in JOLTS Job Openings), a larger-than-expected trade deficit, and weak consumer and financial data from the UK, which could increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Likelihood of Gold Weakening: 40%
Main Factors: USD strengthening driven by Treasury auction yields (3-Month, 5-Year, and 52-Week Bill Auction) attracting investors, as well as stability in the US property sector, which may limit interest in gold as a safe-haven asset.
Summary:
Overall, the probability of gold strengthening is higher (60%) than of it weakening (40%), mainly due to economic uncertainties boosting the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.
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