XAUUSD-Still a Downfall

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The recent data from the Commodity Exchange Inc. as of February 20, 2024, presents a nuanced picture suggesting a potential downturn in gold prices. Non-commercial traders, primarily speculators, decreased their long positions by 2,587 contracts and increased short positions by 15,883 contracts, indicating a shift towards bearish sentiment among this segment of the market. Meanwhile, commercial traders, representing entities involved in gold-related businesses, significantly increased their short positions by 5,925 contracts, surpassing their long positions by a notable margin. This divergence in positioning between non-commercial and commercial traders, coupled with the overall decrease in open interest by 8,924 contracts, suggests a growing consensus among market participants for a potential downward trajectory in gold prices.

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It is estimated that there will be an upward swing reaching around 2045 before falling to the range of 2020-2016. After that, it is expected to rise again towards 2045.

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