GOLD recovers, supported by data, key trends, PCE eyes on

٢٨ يونيو

As weak economic data supports expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates this year, putting pressure on the USD, spot gold increased sharply by nearly 30 USD in yesterday's trading session. Today (Friday), investors will receive the most important economic data of the week, US PCE inflation data, which is expected to set the market trend.


Some published data has supported the gold market. Essentially, wholesale inventories were lower than expected and the final GDP value fell significantly, dragging down the US Dollar index, thus boosting gold prices.
• US quarterly GDP growth in the first quarter was revised slightly to 1.4%, but remained below the 3.4% in the last three months of 2023. GDP report also showed weakness in consumer spending. US consumption growth was adjusted down to 1.5% compared to the previous forecast of 2%.
• Data released Thursday also showed initial unemployment claims fell to 233,000 in the week ended June 22. However, in the week ending June 15, the number of people continuing to apply for unemployment benefits increased by 18,000 to 1.839 million, the highest level since late 2021.

US PCE inflation data is about to be published
At 19:30 Hanoi time today (Friday), US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data for May will be released, which could reveal the path of interest rates of the Fed.
Surveys show the US PCE price index is expected to be flat month-on-month in May, after rising 0.3% in April. The US PCE price index is expected to rise at a monthly pace. year-on-year was 2.6% in May, following a 2.7% increase in April.
In terms of more important core data, the survey shows that the US core PCE price index in May is expected to increase 0.1% monthly, following a 0.2% increase in April; increased at an annual rate of 2.6%, compared with a 2.8% increase the previous month.
As the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, year-over-year changes in the core PCE price index have a larger impact on policymakers.
The upcoming US core PCE price index for May will act as a short-term catalyst for market trends in general and the gold market in particular. Since gold does not earn interest, falling interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, making it more attractive to investors.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, after gold reached levels around the 2,305 – 2,300 USD area it recovered and increased again but is currently still limited by the confluence area of ​​EMA21, the upper edge of the price channel and the technical 2,324USD.

Considering the overall technical picture, although the gold price has recovered, it still does not have enough conditions to increase further. The condition for the gold price to continue to recover and increase is that it needs to move up. above the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level and then the target level can be noticed at 2,365USD in the short term.

During the day, the technical outlook for gold does not show further price increases, but instead technical conditions are still supporting a downtrend from the price channel.

Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,305 – 2,300USD
Resistance: 2,324 – 2,340 – 2,345USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2343 - 2341

⚰️SL: 2347

⬆️TP1: 2336
⬆️TP2: 2331

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2302 - 2304

⚰️SL: 2298

⬆️TP1: 2309
⬆️TP2: 2314

٢٨ يونيو

ملاحظة

🟡Gold prices are declining, but they are heading to record an increase for the third quarter in a row, at a time when investors are awaiting US inflation data scheduled to be released later today.

- Gold in spot transactions fell 0.3% to $2,321.18 per ounce

- Gold prices increased by about 4% during the second quarter of 2024

٢٨ يونيو

ملاحظة

(Focus) US core PCE: 0.1% m/m (Forecast: 0.1%. Previous: 0.2%)
Canadian GDP: 0.3 % m/m (Forecast: 0.3%. Previous: 0.0%)

٣٠ يونيو

ملاحظة

Gold price closed the trading week at 2,326 USD/ounce, a slight increase of about 5 USD/ounce compared to the end of last week.

Precious metals on the international exchange have not been able to break out in the short term as the USD continues to maintain a high level. The USD index currently stands around 105.87 points, up 1.14% over the previous month.

٣٠ يونيو

ملاحظة

On the daily chart, gold recovered but the early recovery was beaten by the target resistance area presented to readers in the previous issue of 2,340 – 2,345 USD, the price area of ​​the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement and technical level 2,345USD.

Gold's weekly close still within the price channel shows that the downtrend remains stable, while price activity returning below the EMA21 also makes this moving average the closest current resistance for gold. with the price of gold technically on the daily chart.

١ يوليو

ملاحظة

World gold prices started a new trading week this morning (July 1) in a slightly decreasing state. After rising strongly in the second quarter and the first half of the year, gold prices have leveled off recently and experts predict they will continue to struggle in the short term.

٣ يوليو

ملاحظة

Goldman Sachs predicts when and how much the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates

Two analysts at the famous American investment bank, Goldman Sachs, presented their expectations for the steps of the US Federal Reserve regarding the date and number of times it will cut interest rates during the bank’s meetings this year.

٤ يوليو

ملاحظة

🔴Fed says it’s not ready to cut rates until ‘greater confidence’ inflation is moving to 2% goal.

٤ يوليو

ملاحظة

The dollar declines after interest rate cut hopes rise

The US dollar fell in early European trade on Thursday as weak economic data raised expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, while the pound rose as the UK headed to the polls.

At 13:34 Riyadh time, the dollar index, which measures the US currency against a basket of six other currencies, was trading 0.15% lower at 104.907, continuing the sharp declines seen overnight.

٥ يوليو

ملاحظة

🔴The dollar falls to its lowest level in 3 weeks before the release of employment data

The US dollar fell sharply during major foreign exchange trading on Thursday, as market expectations rose regarding the Federal Reserve ending its monetary tightening policy.

٧ يوليو

ملاحظة

Goldman Sachs upgrades UK growth forecast after huge Labour election win

Goldman Sachs on Friday upgraded its growth forecast for the U.K. after the Labour Party’s victory in the country’s general election.

٧ يوليو

ملاحظة

📌The trading plan for next week will be to buy if the price returns to test around the 2335 barrier, and to sell if the price approaches the 2440 area.

٨ يوليو

ملاحظة

🟢Treasury yields rise as investors look to inflation data due in week ahead

➡️U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to key economic data due throughout the week, including fresh inflation insights.

٩ يوليو

ملاحظة

On the technical chart, XAU/USD has hit resistance at $2,390, a level that caused a reversal in April. The possibility of improving risk appetite in global financial markets is still possible, supported by financial reporting season. If XAU/USD breaks above the $2,390 mark, it could be an important signal, signaling a new attack on historic highs near 2,450.