2 BTC to 20 BTC Trading Challenge - day 10 (1.44 BTC)

١١ يناير ٢٠١٩

Disclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.

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It never feels great to capitalize on a string of losses, but in a certain sense it can feel like a weight is being lifted off the shoulders. Holding onto positions that are underwater is stressful and induces anxiety.

When I am fully exposed it also limits opening new trades. It can even turn into a helpless type of feeling where you have no control over the outcome. Once you make a decision and pull the trigger then the only thing that is left to do it wait and hope.

However after shedding some lousy positions I start to feel agile and focused again. It starts to feel like the ball is back in my court and I get excited to prepare for my next shot.

In “Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader” Peter Brandt talks about closing out all positions that are not turning a profit by weeks end. That was something that never resonated with me because I try to capture big moves, over larger TF’s, and feel comfortable giving my positions time to develop.

However, Peter is also a swing trader who uses higher TF’s so I always wondered how he married those two techniques. Now I am starting to understand the genius of this approach and will be considering incorporating it into my strategy.

If you are a breakout trader, which I am, then you are trying to enter right after a breakout and right before a big move / trend. If you think an asset is breaking out, and you are confident enough to take a position, then what does it tell you if the trade is still underwater after a few days?

It tells me that I entered on a trap instead of a breakout. In this circumstance it could behoove me to exit asap instead of waiting for my stop to trigger or Consensio to signal an exit.

Something else that is coming to mind is conserving one of the two most valuable resources that we have as traders: time and money. Losing money is apart of doing business and it can always be earned back. However holding onto a losing position for too long means that time is also being lost / wasted. There is nothing worse in this business than losing a significant amount of time and money.

Open Positions

Long: USDTRY

Price: $5.55804
Projected Risk: 5.66%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.16 lots ($16,000)
Margin: 0.048 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.11 BTC

Notes: Support holding above the phase 3 trendline is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy bankroll for this challenge.

Long: USDZAR

*1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%. However minimum available to scale out was 8%
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA (5%) + Bearish M MA (30%) + Bearish Cross with S & M MA’s (15%) + P < flat L MA (25% - 50%)
*1/7/19 SET STOP LOSS: Stop loss set at $13.489 for remainder of position.
*1/9/19 ADJUSTED STOP LOSS: Moved stop to $13.64 due to expected support from 200 MA.

Price: $14.48
Projected risk: Market stop set at $13.49
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.06 lots ($6,000)
Margin: 0.0157 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.075 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.068 BTC


Short: SPX500

*1/4/19 ADD TO POSITION: S MA making bearish cross with M MA = 15% added
*1/6/19 SCALE OUT: P > S MA (5%) + bullish M MA (30%) + Bullish cross with S & M MA’s (15%) = 50%

Price: $2,472.62
Projected Risk (horizontal resistance at $2,650): 7.17%
Leverage: 100X
Exposure: 0.09 lots ($22,276)
Margin: 0.0586 BTC
Unrealized PnL: -0.289 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.129 BTC

Notes: Resistance at $2,650 holding is going to be very important for me to maintain a healthy roll for this challenge.

Long ETHUSD

*1/10/19 Scale in due to support from bullish L MA

Price: $125.68
Stop: $119.45
Risk: 4.9%
Leverage: 10X
Exposure: 12.68 ETH (0.4386 BTC)
Projected Risk: 0.021 BTC
Unrealized PnL: +0.0049 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.0003 BTC


Closed Positions

Long: XBTM19

*1/3/19 SCALE OUT: P < S MA = 5%
*1/6/19 SET STOP LOSS at breakeven
*1/10/19 STOPPED OUT - small loss due to fees / funding

Price: $3,727
Projected Risk (due to horizontal support): None. Market stop adjusted to breakeven.
Leverage: 10X
Exposure: $3,541
Margin: 0.957 BTC
Realized PnL: -0.0257 BTC
ROI: -2.70%

Open Orders

*1/10/19 CANCELLED due to support breakdown. Stop Market to long 1.645 XBTH19 @ $4,037.
*1/10/19 AMENDED stop market to short XAUUSD. Moved entry up to $1,284 due to that being below horizontal support & parabola and it provided better risk:reward. Consenio signaled entry today, but I’d prefer to wait for further confirmation.
*1/10/19 CANCELLED due to support breakdown. Stop Market to buy XRPUSD @ $0.528.

Watchtower

Today is decision time. If we close towards the bottom of the candle then will remove bullish entries from Watchtower and will start hunting for shorts.

USDJPY: (leaning bearish) Consensio is bearish on Monthly chart indicating that the triangle has a greater chance of breaking down. Tightest monthly BB has been since 1976 when the price proceeded to move 41% in ~21 months. Think that retesting $80 is most likely.



XRPUSD: In a Bollinger Band super squeeze on the weekly with lower highers and highers lows suggesting upcoming parabolic move either way...a/k/a Jesus Fish Pattern. Symmetrical triangle on daily provides first target of $1.1



USDCAD: Approaching bullish 200 MA while the M MA and L MA posture for death cross. Weekly A&E bottom with $1.63 target. Massive volume over last 3 years. Currently fitting into channel. Tightest weekly BB squeeze since 2000.




BTCUSD: Gap in the visible range volume profile looks like it is begging to get filled. If we close above $4,300 then a return to $5,400 - $6,000 would be my highest probability outcome. Will be strongly considering setting a stop order to add to my long above the daily Parabolic SAR. Backwardation appears to be getting slightly more exaggerated, currently 3.03%.



ETHUSD: First weekly buy signal since April 2018. Weekly appears to be getting rejected by TL + SAR. Potential for bearish englufing. Daily just broke SAR but is finding support from bullish L MA.






ETHBTC: Potential weekly Golden Cross upcoming. Pullback to 33 day MA could represent could entry.




LTCUSD: Waiting for close > daily cloud saved me. Treating inside the cloud as a not trade zone can work very well. Now it appears to be finding support from the TL and trying to create another higher low.



XRPBTC: Incoming death cross following L MA roll over could be setting up ideal entry. However ascending triangle is still in tact and want to wait to enter until we get a close above / below.



XAUUSD: A few daily candles have closed above the trend line from 2016 but when zooming out to the weekly chart it becomes clear that the TL is continuing to hold as resistance, therefore it is still in tact. Daily looks like it is ready to break down at any moment and that is why I will be waiting with stop entry. Consensio is also starting to signal short entries with P < S & M MA while those are making a bearish cross.



EURUSD: (leaning bullish) L MA and LL MA squeezing with price between on weekly and the LL MA appears to be making bullish reversal. Seeing a potential A&E bottom. Bollinger Band in tightest squeeze since 2014 and a 24% move followed that one.



USDHUF: Just an 18 year symmetrical triangle.



USDRUB: Symmetrical triangle forming above bullish 200 MA that is approaching the price. Also had a recent GGC on the weekly.

١١ يناير ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

Thought I should quickly clarify my outlook on Gold. In the very short term I am expecting a correcting to the downside once / if the parabola on the daily breaks down.

However I just realized that the weekly formed another higher low along a very long term trendline. That's made me bullish long term.