XAUUSD: The 5th wave decline started

١٧ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٤

🔸The overall market sentiment is currently cautious, mainly because of the major event of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision to be announced this week. The market generally chooses to wait and see, and the trading atmosphere is relatively light. Gold retreated slightly after opening at the beginning of the week, and then began to pull back and correct, which can be seen as an aftershock after the previous surge or plunge. However, after two consecutive days of retreat, Monday's performance has not stabilized, and the daily line finally closed with a cross star pattern. In the trend market, the cross star often represents repair and adjustment, and the top and bottom are also the watershed areas in the short term. Once the price breaks through for the second time, the market is likely to continue the trend after the breakthrough. At present, the upper 2665 of gold is the key suppression point. If this position is touched, the shorts will most likely exert force again, and the possibility of a breakthrough is low; the effective support below is near 2643. Once it falls below this position, it will further open up the space for shorts to go down.

🔸Yesterday, the gold daily line closed with a spindle line, indicating that the market is in a range of fluctuations, which is also in line with expectations. From the Bollinger Bands, yesterday's K-line entity was short, and the price did not effectively stand on the middle track, indicating that the bullish momentum is still weak. Today, we can continue to look bearish based on the Bollinger Bands middle track 2665. At the same time, the upper 2670 position has also become a key resistance area, which can be used as the first defense point for short orders during the day.

🔸Hourly level and wave structure analysis
Combined with the 1-hour chart and wave theory, the current trend structure of gold is relatively clear:
🔰C wave decline completed: Last Friday night, gold went out of the C wave decline, reaching a minimum of 2643, close to the end of the C wave near 2640.
🔰The 4th wave correction: On Monday, it fluctuated upward and rebounded to 2664, just at the 0.382 correction level of the C wave decline, which is regarded as the end of the 4th wave correction.
🔰The 5th wave decline started: Gold is currently in the 5th wave decline stage. According to the 1:1 amplitude with the 3rd wave, the end point is expected to be around 2615, which coincides with the starting point of the previous rising market at 2613. Before that, we need to focus on the break of the previous low of 2643. Once it effectively breaks and is confirmed by large volume, gold will further continue its downward trend.

🔸Overall, the short-term trend of gold is still bearish, paying attention to the suppression of the 2665-2670 resistance area and the break of the 2643 support. We need to guard against market fluctuations caused by the Fed's interest rate decision, maintain flexible operations, and strictly control risks.

١٧ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٤

تم فتح الصفقة

Mainly short on rebound:
Entry point: 2665-2670 resistance area.
Profit target: The first target is 2643, and the second target is 2615-2613 area.
Risk control: Stop loss is set above 2675.

Short on break below:
Entry point: After effectively falling below 2643, pull back to confirm short entry.
Profit target: Look to around 2615.
Risk control: Stop loss is set above 2650.

١٧ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٤

أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف

As we expected, gold started a downward trend after falling below 2643. We continued to short after the correction, and the lowest price reached around 2633, making a profit of nearly 100PIPS.