Gold – Approaching All Time Highs Again

Gold has risen for 3 weeks in a row to start 2025, leading it back to a 2 month high at 2763 and more importantly only 1.5% away from its October 2024 all time high of 2790.

While Gold prices have been underpinned by on-going demand from global central banks, namely China, its attraction as a safe haven against uncertainty surrounding the path of inflation, a weaker global economy, higher government spending and geo-political risks have kept it at the forefront of many investor portfolios.

This recent push to the highs has been in response to President Trump's outlining of potential trade tariffs on China, Canada, EU and Mexico across the week. While it is unsure whether these are merely threats or he will actually follow through with his plans, the mere potential has been enough to keep Gold in demand, for now at least.

With that in mind, it is important to remember that Gold has been to these levels before and reversed lower, so there is no guarantee of a retest or break to new upside levels. Excessive long positioning, further dollar strength or a shift in market expectations away from Fed interest rate cuts in 2025 could be enough to see an unwind back to the downside.

Technical Outlook: Bollinger Bands

We often emphasise the potential importance of the Bollinger mid-average within a trending market, with it marking support within a positive price trend, and resistance within a downtrend.



Therefore, it has been interesting that any weakness in the Gold price was supported by the rising weekly Bollinger mid-average, from which fresh attempts to the upside have resumed.

Not only that, the latest price strength has recently broken resistance at 2721 which was the late November 2024 bounce failure high, which may in time lead to a more extended advance.

Much clearly depends on future price trends, but the latest upside appears to maintain what is a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, in place since the September 2022 downside extremes at 1615.

Potential Resistance: All Time High

The next resistance focus for traders, could now be 2790, the October 2024 all-time high, which having held and reversed previous price strength, may be able to do so again. As such, the closing defence of this key level is watched, as it could offer clues to the next direction of possible price moves.

Just because breaks of previous all-time highs have seen further upside in the past, is no guarantee it will do so again, but successful closing breaks above the 2790 resistance may open up scope to higher levels.



It is always hard to gauge potential resistance points as prices push to new all-time highs but using Fibonacci extension levels of the latest October to November 2024 sell-off, may offer some insight.

The 38% extension of this setback stands at 2886, which may provide strong resistance to any further advance, although if that level was to break, then 2945, which is the higher 62% extension may become relevant.

Potential Support: Weekly Bollinger Mid-Average



In terms of support, it may well still be the rising weekly Bollinger mid-average, which is important. This currently stands at 2664, so any dips in price may consolidate around this level.

However, this giving way on a weekly closing basis, may suggest the recent upside strength is under pressure, with possibilities for a more extended phase of price weakness.

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