XAU/USD 17-21 February 2025 Weekly Analysis

Weekly Analysis:

Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.

Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 09 February 2025.

Price has printed a further bullish iBOS.

Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line.

Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had repositioned previous CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Current CHoCH positioning is quite a distance away from price, therefore, it would be viable if price continued bullish to reposition ChOCH.

Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.

Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.

Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.

Weekly Chart:

Daily Analysis:

Swing -> Bullish.
Internal -> Bullish.

Since my last weekly analysis price has printed a bullish iBOS. Bias and analysis has been accurate over the last few months.

Price is now trading within a fractal high and internal low.

Bearish ChOCH positioning is denoted with a blue shorter dotted line and is very well positioned to print bearish CHoCH which is the very first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation

Note:
With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action.

Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.

Daily Chart:

H4 Analysis:

-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.

Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 11 February 2025.

As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 10 February 2025 that it is highly likely price will print a bullish iBOS is how price printed.

Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high.

ChoCH positioning to indicate, but not confirm bearish pullback phase initiation is denoted with a blue dotted line.

Intraday Expectation:

Price to continue bearish and react at either discount of internal 50%, or H4 demand zone, before targeting weak internal high, priced at 2,942.780.

Alternative scenario:

Given HTF (Daily and Weekly) have also printed bullish iBOS' it would not come as a surprise if price printed a bearish iBOS.

Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.

Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty.

H4 Chart: