RIGHT NOW #006
Continues directly from #005. Only 2 hours left until NY closes for aftermarket. This chart is combined expectations through Monday night, a move to 2330-2440.
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3:00 PM, Friday, 7/26. Not expecting any thing for next 2 hours.1) this is setup that with the right headline, you get 2450 much faste
2) than base case in chart at top, which is by 10 PM ET Monday night
3) the dotted lines left and right represent all realistic zones for price/time
4) the zig zag here means to say that
5) the more compressed price is to is eventual release 2395-2400
6) the more likely that the next 50 points will be vertical
7) and the less likely that 2445-2450 is the hard ceiling before FOMC
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8) the circle represents a higher high Tuesday night.9) the rectangle is FOMC check down to 2400-ish
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FOR MY REGULARS AND MEDIUM-LONG BUY AND HOLDERS;1) 24 hours ago we still had 3 routes
2) but they lead two only 2 conclusions
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3) continuing in chart above4) this the first day that I am no longer worried about meeting 3000 by Halloween
5) there's a moment when PRICE CHOOSES A OR B
6) that moment was when I WARNED OF INCOMING 50 PT DROP
7) as bear's last comeback
8) but check down was bought at 2380
9) and Ag called 'line break"
10) I was too tired and fell asleep at this time and wokeup an hour late
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SO WHAT? 1) this process has been eventful
2) but this is it my friends
3) I asked you on Tuesday, HOW DID WE FUCK UP?
4) even though we caught the rallies each time
5) yes Tuesday was premature bc the floor fell out
6) BUT WE TESTED THE 44 YEAR TREND LINE
7) it's all over, full stop
8) THIS, IS THE BUY AND HOLD FOR 2675-2725
9) I am not going to outsmart the rally
10) and this model of RIGHT NOW every 8 hours is to totally let loose short term
11) vs medium to long back drop
12) meaning I see 2675-2725 BEFORE SEPTEMBER and I think 8/22 IS THE TOP
13) so for 4 weeks
14) and just because I see that, there will be no reduction in odds for random 50 pt swings
15) take that out completely
16) strategy IS BUY NOW AND HOLD TO 2535, 2675 OR 2725
17) while RIGHT NOW posts, deal with RIGHT NOW only
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18) aftermarket close, would like to see a higher high if only marginally19) bc compression at 2390s still strong
20) 91-92 would be logical for last 15 minutes of aftermarket
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21) 8/22 is too fast for 2700s in this setup, 9/10 is better, much betterملاحظة
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22) so in chart above $41.60 call for silverملاحظة
5:08 PM, 2386.89, we didn't get the close we wanted. a) play chart at top
b) BUT THAT'S ENOUGH TO EXCEED EXPECTATIONS
c) especially the higher part
d) I expect a 6 hour gap between price and the hilight with price leading same curves
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5:29 PM ET, If this doesn't convince you, why are you reading my stuff? 1) think about a job a sport you play or thing that you are good at
2) THERE'S A POINT WHERE YOU KNOW THAT YOU KNOW WHAT YOU ARE DOING
3) I passed that when gold was 1610 and moved to 1750
4) I am a that point where I KNOW HOW TO DO IT WELL
5) that said, there are days when you are really good and days that you are not
6) I am about to enter my best stretch ever next 100 days
7) not compared to what other people do, but I you know don't care what they do
8) but compared to the best I've ever done you have seen me do
9) or I guess 98 days bc it's 98 days to Halloween
10) but that doesn't really matter either
11) I am trying to say...
12) whatever type of work or career you are in
13) there's a point where you IN THE ZONE
14) and this zone IS NOT YOU JUST BC OF YOU
15) it's the people you work with, its the situation where you have al l the tools
16) with the right set of clients needing what it is that you do best
17) and add in number of external factors that usually do not go your way
18) for whatever reasons , those factors decide to take a holiday
19) and you absolutely crush it, AND YOU KNOW IT GOING IN ...
20) that's where I am for next 98 days
21) but it only counts if I make money for you
22) other wise, what the hell is the point?
23) so....
A) if you are medium-long term it's buy and hold to a specific number
B) and I will specify a head of time what those numbers are
C) if you u haven't bought in, DO ON THE OPEN
D) for everyone else, follow the notes and
E) if you have questions post them in each post
F) bc when I get busy, I don't want 6 different tabs open
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See you Sunday after opern.ملاحظة
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... and zooming in:ملاحظة
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and again:ملاحظة
7/26, 8:44 PM ET: Why bring it up? Because during this bottom, a buddy asked me a question in the, RIGHT NOW #0002 post here:
1) in chart above, click replay and you can see that moment happen
2) in this chart there's two boxes
3) when I posted this I actually thought I would move up first THEN down
4) hitting both boxes top down order
5) as soon as I posted, price kept moving down
6) and all of sudden (we were short at this time, it's obvious in the notes...
7)
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7) at 1:36 PM I said next 20 min would be critical (price was 54.45)8) at 1:44 PM I announce stop at 55.3 (price was 53.63
9) at 1:52 PM I announce stoped out 55.3
10) my buddy, Ordinary-Huaman asked why? but stop at 55.3..
11) because THE MOST RECEN LOW IN THE PREVIOUS 30 MIN was 53.10
12) and then I posted this:
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13) basically he wanted to know BASED ON WHAT DO I MAKE THAT CALL14) there 's no reason ANYWHERE you read to make that call
15) no sign, no signal
16) I said I would be focused on RIGHT NOW first, and explain next week ...
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17) I chart above so I made that call, virtually at the bottom with price having only moved 2 points18) that's the whole zone time and price for the square
19) that the arrow is pointing at
20) to be clear, I wasn't calling THE BOTTOM, just A BOTTOM
21) but it wasn't on nothing
22) my trend indicators called "in 20 minutes" at the beginning
23) bc TREND WAS SUPER SUPER BEAR at this point
24) that if 30 min or so since move to 2353, price is not lower and lower
25 that point is a trend change
26 I can do this all the time if I stay on 5, 10 and 15 second bars
27 but I cannot do that if and be able to call prices days weeks and months out
28) bc to call 3000 BY HALLOWEEN is an ENTIRELY DIFFERENT SET OF DATA
29) so that's what these RIGHT NOW posts are meant to do
30) focus only on immediate price action while being only somewhat aware of
31) where price should be sometime away
32 it allows me to spend more time on what is going instead of what wiill happen
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7/27, Saturday, AND I JUST FOR SOLVED FOR THE "INTERMEDIATE PROBLEM". a) if you've been following me for years
b) I solved the long term problem a long time ago
c) for ex:
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d) chart above is original RUMORS OF A PIVOT (Fed Pivot) PART 3e) called 2300 about month early but here's a better one:
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f) for the record, I the "binary" called this outcome 40-days ahead of Fed Pivot early November here:
g) you can replay any of these to see results
h) and if you've been with me since September's 1810 low ahead HAMAS/ISRAEL
i) my short term binary model was completed during the run the first rally 2000s
j) this is the basis for RIGHT NOW DRAFTS, which cut the 16 hour model to 8 hour model
k) to anticipate all possible short term outcomes
l) after 10 weeks searching for gold's break out, we finally made it to "2150 by 03/08"
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m) this was the beginning of refining the intermediate model starting with the earliest call for new all time highs:
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n) leading to 2150 DRAFT 1 (which hit but replayable bc bar size too small)
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o) on the way to 2430 I wrested with many different methods to get this rightp) and I thought I finally figured out with this the call for 3000 by Halloween
q) which is this:
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r) we now know that was too early even though it saw new all time highs comings) it did not see that as a result of coming late, it would reverse
t) yes I know I've said this 50 times but forecasting prices better than this is HARD AS FUCK OK?
u) maybe harder..
v) long story short, with yesterday's defense of the 44-year trend line
w) I really thought price has made the "decision to go for 3000 instead of 2900 by Halloween
x) and I also said I expect silver to move to 41.60
y) well, while working's silver chart, this reminded me of my silver call for the last 24 months:
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z) i't's running very late vs the 4-day bar1) and with the exception of 2150 DRAFT 1, you can replay all of these
2) and see what happened
3) so while drafting silver's 100-day
4) I DO NOT SEE STRENGTH
5) therein lies the problem, and the problem is my intermediate model
6) to be frank is still trash
7) so how to we deal with this??
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7/27 1:40 PM ET, yesterday I posted this chart:ملاحظة
1) in chart above my intermediate 100-day model is saying that this defense of 44 year trend line...2) means the decision for 3000 is in
3) SILVER DISAGREES
4) winner is silver
5) why? bc my intermediate model is unproven
6) if I can't confirm a strong route to basically $42 for silver
7) this is not happening
8) so then?
9) so then this post, RIGHT NOW #006, chart at very top
10) is only a 8 hour chart, which means reliable only until 2405
11) so my call RIGHT NOW is stall Monday morning at 2403-2407
12) what does this mean for buy and holders?
A) sell 2400 then wait
B) wait, but for how long?
C) 2 maybe for days
D) my resolution for the intermediate model once and for all
E) is a simple one eliminate all possible risk
F) and the only way to do that is to be late
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G) being late means that, to buy and hold and leverage it H) YOU have to wait until all risk is eliminated, even it it means you have to miss out
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3:29 PM ET to be 100% clear1) bc the math shows that
2) even a move to 2500s AFTER FOMC
3) doesn't eliminate 2300s AFTER 2500S
4) so the only path forward is 8 hour-drafting until...
5) silver agrees it's time to much higher
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5:30 PM, Notes for Sunday pre-open:1) so I expect this chart at top to hit the whole way
2) meaning up to 2432 and 2445, and let me see
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3) 2432, 2440, AND MAYBE 24464) and then come all the way down to 2400 just like I have it
5) EXCEPT I don't know what happens next
6) unless we get serious move in silver to match it
7) after zig zag at 2400-2392, it's 2350 again AFTER FOMC
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7/27, 7:06 PM, my response to Israel-Lebanon news:1) At the very top of this chart, I opened with:
>>3:00 PM, Friday, 7/26. Not expecting any thing for next 2 hours.
>>1) this is setup that with the right headline, you get 2450 much faster
>>2) than base case in chart at top, which is by 10 PM ET Monday night
>>3) the dotted lines left and right represent all realistic zones for price/time
2) So this is #006, the dotted line on left of blue hi-light is the speed limit.
3) Which gets to 2432-2440 by noon ET of Monday.
4) It changes nothing except the possibility of a higher high in London Tuesday.
5) Which I just cannot see above 2465.
6) Notes right above this I called MAYBE 2446
7) Add 12 points for war fever, cant' get to 2460.
8) By Wednesday AM, before FOMC we will be AT OR UNDER 2386 (price right now).
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1) in chart above, it's about where #005 was2) here:
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3) bars haven't updated for replay but in an hour you can play it:
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6:34 PM ET 2397.69, is it possible to move faster?1) well big of a deal is Israel vs Hezbollah?
2) Iran has elected a new leader that is more interested in normal relations
3) so unless somebody else steps in a ring, I don't see what the big deal is about
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Where am I with medium-long expectations?1) if I view gold by itself, the conclusion should be 3050 by Halloween
2) but we already made that mistake
3) silver's not doing anything (it needs to be 3x or 4x gold move and i's not
4) so next on the list is 2900
5) but we have to resolve the this coming top first
6) and after detailing everything
7) it looks like we hit the 2446 high on Wednesday morning right before FOMC
8) probably as a response to ADP
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9) continuing with chart above10) this would've fit my route to 2540
11) buy I just cant make that make sense
12) with how late silver is
13) bc if we go 2540 now
14) silver should've been out performing gold since gold was 2295
15) not by a little bit but 3x, 4x, 5x something like that
16) and it's UNDERPERFORMING
17) so barring a true miracle, gold drops 100 points in 20 hours after FOMC
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2391, 1:40 AM ET, TREND CHANGE ... NEED NEW TREND MAPSملاحظة
2:09 AM ET 2393.XXa) can't make it in time
b) gotta sleep
c) but here's what I can make out:
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RIGHT NOW #007 POSTED IN GROUP.I WILL UPDATE IN THE MORNING WHEN I WAKE UP.
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