#5-6 THE MOST ACCURATE GOLD FORECAST IN THE WORLD
SUMMARY - This is the 11/19/23, 15-min bar, 80-hour detailed with, 40-hour ultra detailed, CONTINUOUS EVOLVING FORECAST for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. This continues from #5-5, the workup for this draft. I closed Friday thinking that the move down was NOT complete. I think that's only half true. What I really see is 3 arcs in this channel that favors a 4-step swing move up 40 pts, down 50 pts, up 80 to roughly 2050 by noon on Wednesday, finishing down 30 Thanksgiving morning. Before Sunday open, this 4-step route is 75/25 vs the lower sideways move that ignores the 2 smaller arcs.
WARNING - As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted the following 12-16 hours to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. As of late, forecasts are once/twice per day to be continuously relevant. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully and I do not respond in time, SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively.
HOW TO USE - Blues are strong bull routes. Oranges are strong bear routes (none this time). The darker the color, the more likely price action will take that path.
DETAILS - Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them (especially if you are new to us) occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that these forecasts help you cash day in and day out. Ask my readers.
IF MY FORECASTS HELP YOU MAKE REAL MONEY - Want more posts, more accuracy, and around the clock updates? Help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY. Word of mouth is the best way help make this a thing. The more demand I have for this, the more posts on more tickers I will make. The current rates of followers and readership is really not worth it for me to keep going, bu I keep trying everyday to make you money. If you don't have friends because your wife say they are too much fun, well then I guess hit the boost/like button.
WARNING - As a precaution, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted the following 12-16 hours to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. As of late, forecasts are once/twice per day to be continuously relevant. As always, when price action disagrees with forecast meaningfully and I do not respond in time, SCRAP THE FORECAST and trade defensively.
HOW TO USE - Blues are strong bull routes. Oranges are strong bear routes (none this time). The darker the color, the more likely price action will take that path.
DETAILS - Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them (especially if you are new to us) occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that these forecasts help you cash day in and day out. Ask my readers.
IF MY FORECASTS HELP YOU MAKE REAL MONEY - Want more posts, more accuracy, and around the clock updates? Help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY. Word of mouth is the best way help make this a thing. The more demand I have for this, the more posts on more tickers I will make. The current rates of followers and readership is really not worth it for me to keep going, bu I keep trying everyday to make you money. If you don't have friends because your wife say they are too much fun, well then I guess hit the boost/like button.
ملاحظة
11/19 3:04 PM ET before Sunday open. a) first the two routes above, the higher move has the regular zigzag
b) the lower move has the broken, dashed zig-zag
c) before we go on, this THE CURRENT PICTURE to 12/11, or 23 days out INCLUDING TODAY:
ملاحظة
ملاحظة
d) in chart above, the blue channel and the arcs are derived from total break line by line break down of six different ratios e) this forecast has my total confidence UNLESS THE BIG ARC BREAKS AND HOLD....
f) stick-saves don't count as a break
ملاحظة
g) this is what I expect for the next 6-8 monthsملاحظة
h) in chart above, we are 1980.xx before Sunday open i) I see 2120 by 11/29
j) I see 2220 by 12/11-12
k) I see 2120 again on 01/10/24
l) I see 2400+/-30 by 02/08/24
m) I see 27xx by 03/08/24 BEFORE A MASSIVE REVERSAL to June-August window
ملاحظة
3:25 PM ET, CONSIDER THIS WRITE UP MY BEGGING INVITATION FOR YOU TO JOIN US IN THIS TRADE:ملاحظة
ملاحظة
a) the chart above is a link to #5-5 b) in that post, I broke down a history of the development of my forecasting process
c) while I will finish the remaining we go...
d) it is time now to focus on nailing this entry, which ever your time frame is
e) before we get down to it...
f) IF YOU DON'T HAVE A LOT OF TIME, CONSIDER BUYING AND HOLDING FOR 3-4 WEEKS
g) for some people who don't have time to watch and manage trades
h) THIS IS THAT TIME IT'S OK TO DO THAT
ملاحظة
4:46 PM ET 75 min until open here's more detail for 1 and 2 min bars:ملاحظة
a) in chart above the favorite is same as chart at top, it should be 70% or moreb) the very route in the middle is SAME AS LOW ROUTE IN CHART AT TOP.....
c) it's only 5-10%, don't consider that route realistic
d) the lighter blue below is 15-20%
e) that is simply saying that if it's not doing the high move, it's THE LOWEST OF THE THREE, not the middle one (same as low route in chart at top)
f) how would you know?
g) if first small arc holds, it's high move all the way
h) if it breaks and says in that box (1975 and higher) but only for 2-3 hours ...
i) it's STILL HIGH MOVE all the way
j) if it wants to do the lowest route, then drift to 1970 AND STAY THERE FOR 6-8 HOURS
ملاحظة
k) will add notes next between 8 pm and middnightملاحظة
l) more clarity here ahead of open in 45 minutes:ملاحظة
7:35 PM ET GOT THE SETUP & NOW WHAT?ملاحظة
a) ok so I bought at 1973.xx b) and let me explain my reasons:
1) bc of a potential 2-way swing
2) bc if t doesn't happen I still see 1945-1950 by this Wednesday
3) 2080 by NEXT Sunday night or Monday 11/27
4) 2120 by 11/29
5) and 2220 by 12/11-12/12
6) because my first of multiple entries
7) I ESSENTIALLY DO NOT HAVE A STOP RIGHT NOW as it is 1976.04 as I type
ملاحظة
8) my situation is not the same as yours9) if you do one entry, wait for a trend line to break and then use something lower or your stop
10) if you are really conservative, wait until Monday night, bc if it goes up early, IT WILL COME HARD DOWN AGAIN
11) I'm just saying I have super strong bullish gold forecast on almost every time frame for years and years
12) bc asit stands, I do see a CHECKDOWN from 2700S to 2120-2140 or a bit higher
13) that will be by June/July/August window
14) but as I am typing, it is 1976.46, I have tons of back up
15) a "stop" is no where in my mind)
ملاحظة
7:51, as I said earlier, there is a window for a break out at 8:15 PM ET, so in 24 minutes:ملاحظة
a) in chart above, if you are conservative or just "trading today or tonight only" wherever you are...b) once it "checks down that box" it's almost a guaranteed push all the way up
c) AND SIMULTANEOUSLY GUARANTEED TO CRASH DOWN AFTERWARDS
ملاحظة
d) awesome!! ملاحظة
e) in chart above: that's A GREAT SIGN FOR US HERE!!f) there's obviously zig zag coming at this spot
g) but hold it just 2-3 hours at 1981... it' ALL THE WAY UP
ملاحظة
ملاحظة
ملاحظة
9:06 PM ET, top looks like 6:30 Amملاحظة
a) could even be earlier...b) we will see
c) but it also shift again later, be aware
ملاحظة
ملاحظة
ملاحظة
for chart above, then obviously 2001-2002 is next stall due to whole bunch of trend lines thereملاحظة
10:24 PM ET... this time will go through:ملاحظة
a) for chart above... AND... maybe b) just maybe a short slow down at 1993 (now that we zig zag the first line already)
ملاحظة
ملاحظة
a) chart above: we are RIGHT ON trend for it with the curve a little bit "curvier" b) which exaggerates the move up AND THE MOVE DOWN EVEN WORSE
ملاحظة
c) at the chart at top there were 3 arcs, we're only in the first oned) at 7am It's second one: MUCH FASTER than the first
ملاحظة
11:37 PM ET, some notes though1) if you replay chart at top, we're at where I had the check down ORIGINALLY...
2) but WE ALREADY HAD IT... we can't have it again unless we're going back to the lower route in chart at top
3) bc THE LOWEST route has already been eliminated
4) at this second it's 85/15 between 2 routes at top
ملاحظة
5) HOWEVER, make a mini arc like this in that arcملاحظة
a) for above at 11:45 pm et and 1982.xx as I typeb) the high route is reaching "conditional favorite"
c) it will only hold that for another 60-75 minutes
d) meaning?
e) IT MUST MOVE UP ... cannot break the small arc either, must continue
f) if hits small arc it's 60/40
g) at it hits big arc it's 50/50
h) crosses big arc and forget it, it's going to look a lot closer to lower route in chart at top
ملاحظة
12:21, 1983... sigh.. it's closea) it hit both my arcs bc I tighten them
b) so at this second I would still have high route 70/30 but its starting to get vague unless we see some moving up
c) if it gets sideways annoying I"m just going to bed
ملاحظة
12: 45 am 1982.. now we are in "something esle terriory" a) butI don't exactly what... so
b) I might just go to bed and see tomorrow
ملاحظة
12:46 am... wait how? a) that wasn't a minute ago..
b) ok, so last post was 12:35 AM.. not a big deal
c) I
ملاحظة
c) I still see this move happening...d) but I can't "judge the curve to call the when"
e) I'm still long, I haven't added
f) if see something worth saying, I'll add before I go out
ملاحظة
1:38 AM.... so here's what the curves are saying...a) if you replay the chart at top
b) price is saying...
c) that will do a move stronger than the lower move...
d) slower and a weaker than the higher move..
e) that's what we have...
f) bc the stats say here that the floor is strong...
g) we will get another rug pull...
h) at the top of this move.. which should be... I dont know 10-11 AM give or take
i) we will get another rug pull...
j) no matter what the move up looks like
k) so that's it... good night
ملاحظة
l) here is what it should look like now..m) more like a noon high 2008-ish
ملاحظة
ملاحظة
2:02 pm I don't see it, it's not really saying that eithera) I checked a few times...
b) some ratios say that, but not dominantly
c) say sideways to 1973
d) I'm waiting to Tuesday
ملاحظة
2:21 AM ET. e) whatever the short term picture is
f) my call for 11/'29 2120 and 12/11-12 2220 does not move an inch
g) just making that clear, bc the immediate picture is blurry mess mor Monday
ملاحظة
9:07 AM ET 11/20 1) so last night I bought 1973
2) minutes ago bought 67, 68...
3) THEN looked at my chart
4) bought again at 67
ملاحظة
5) It is 1967.32 at 9:15 as I type on 11/20.6) Have my calls for for 2120 on 11/29 and 2220 on 12/11-12 moved?
7) Yes.
8) 2120 now 11/30
9) 2220 now 12/12
ملاحظة
9:53 AM ET 1971.XX, SOME NOTES.a) if you replay chart at top...
b) it ignored the 2 smaller arcs and filling out the big one (but we knew late last night already)
b) by playing the VERY light blue low route that I had thought eliminated at 1981-1983 last night...
c) but before going to sleep last night, I said "sideways to 1973"
d) the "short term a mess"
e) the calll 2120 -2220 (11/29, and 12/11-12/12) does "not move an inch"
f) so I was wrong, I moved it to 11/30 and 12/12
g) that's it
ملاحظة
11:10 AM ET, 1973.xx current expectations:ملاحظة
12:10 PM ET 1974.XX I don't know how to handicap gray route:ملاحظة
a) so an hour ago, middle route was favoriteb) while trying too figure out odds for lower light blue
c) I saw gray pop up
d) when I said "I don't know how to handicap" it...
e) I said that wrong, I do, I just can't do it quickly..
ملاحظة
f) it means 1993 in 10 hours or lessg) the NY close is 4 PM ET.. less than four hours out
h) by that time, youll know whether not it's favorite by judging the price ahead of the close
i) if it's above 1983, it's at least a coinf flip vs the middle route
ملاحظة
j so consider:ملاحظة
k) in chart above, this line has been holding since 1993l) if it's going for 1993 close, it doesn't have that much time to zig and zag here
m) bc doing that too much shift the short curves to the middle route by 2-2:30 pm
n) so that means if it wants to it has to break that by 2PM convincingly
ملاحظة
1:07, for future reference, when I say convincingly, I mean through AND KEEP GOING A BIT...ملاحظة
a) in chart above.. so just doing that makes that move at least 25/75 (vs EVERYTHING ELSE, bull bear, whatever, in this context)b) that's less work for me to number crunch regression waves..
c) plus PLEASE UNDERSTAND...
d) I am forecasting huge moves that already had people saying I'm from another planet (see comments)
e) so I don't know what YOU are doing with this...
f) but here is MY PERSONAL OVERALL STRATEGY:
1) every time I see an entry I like I buy, then again, and again, and again...
2) I ONLY SELL WHEN I AM SURE I WILL GET A BUYING OPPORTUNITY SOON...
3) why?
4) bc it's 1977.xx as I type
5) I have expounded expectations for 2120 2220 this high scenario for the last several days
6) not to mention the weeks before explaining that this scenario was possible
7) so I heavy leveraged (you can't even begin to understand what short term options do)
8) so I started with $6000 last week and I want to turn that into 10x or 20x by 12/15...
9) that's 60k or 120k
10) you can only do this during HUGE moves that happen VERY VERY QUICKLY
ملاحظة
11) I've been planning and working this out for 7-8 years now12) IT IS NOT 120K that's going to make me happy
13) the TIME I PUT the last 8 years is probably worth 240k
14) so that' just for you to understand my mental context..
15) I AM NOT TRYING TO DAY TRADE OR TRADE IN AND OUT OFTEN...
ملاحظة
ملاحظة
g) in chart above, just a ball park estimateh) but at this second this move has to be 30/70 vs evertything else (that's a dog BUT VS EVERTYTHING ELSE..)
ملاحظة
I) so it is 1978.xx at 1:24 PM ETm) from here to 9 PM ET... as long it is leading gray it is doing better than middle blue route odds wise
n) that' s saying if price holds that trend, THEN IT HOLDS THAT TREND...
ملاحظة
o) but ONLY IF ALL THE INTERMEDIATE REGRESSIONS ARE BULLISH ...P) which THEY ARE!!!
ملاحظة
2:22 PM LAST NOTE FOR TODAY BUT IMPPORTANT....a) the move to 11/30 and 212o now looks like this:
ملاحظة
b) so? c) it's saying from the stand point of intermediate waves
d) that if the gray wavve plays to day... it will get sold off immediately
e) as in same pattern last night like this:
ملاحظة
f) so that's what I can gauge for daily peopleg) again I actually not working that hard on daily stuff bc I don't really have to...
h) my 110 day picture 2to 2700 IS ROCK SOLID...even if i'ts bit slow before thanksgiving
ملاحظة
i) so take that with some salt...j) meaning ALL I SEE IS up and up and and up.. but it can be sideways to Friday for all I care...
k) with the exception of a A STRONG BOUNCE after FED MINUTES TOMOROOW
ملاحظة
l) mean while... 15 min bars say dark gray is more likely than light gray...ملاحظة
m) add everything together and base case at RIGHT THIS SECOND.. is this:ملاحظة
n) so new gray is base case... that's a w rap for meملاحظة
o) here''s one more so to 11/30, 2120 now like this:ملاحظة
q) and for the record...r) at THE FIRST SIGN THAT WON'T HAPPEN.....
s) I will post something clarifying 3 AM OR 3 PM
ملاحظة
t) two more good entries possible ملاحظة
u) late tonight if it's mirror image of gray movev) and obviously 1PM ET tomorrow
ملاحظة
w) and this should last you until #5-7:ملاحظة
x) those are the two favorites right now.y) dependent on which move we land first tonight at 3:26 PM ET, darker blue is not leading as big as before a less than 70:30 so 2:1
ملاحظة
z) for kids who can't understand how the odds work1) they change all the time, with 3-5 pt swing either direction
2) but you gotta have something to go by to manage expectations
3) if that's too much for you, find a regular TA guy to follow
4) go top 20 guys on this site, they ALL DO THAT, AND WELL TOO
5) in fact if your thing is regular day to day every day...
6) you are probably better off with regular TA
7) so there's that for the trolls
ملاحظة
THIS POST HAS ENED HERE IS #5-7:
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.