REBOOT PART 2: GOLD CRASH (SIDEWAYS)!!

تم تحديثه

This is the continuation of GOLD CRASH REBOOT posted Friday 5/22. Price action today (5/26) demanded a new map. I also feel like this keeps the knife sharp. My updates (and writing style) will make more sense if you read the last piece first.

After running through my regression sets, this is what keeps up coming up almost 60% of the time. Nothing else above 11%. Fundamentally speaking, we are about go nowhere until NFP (followed in 5 days by FOMC).

I wanted to get this up tonight first. As always, I will update as often as possible

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COMMENT TUESDAY 9:47 PM

I notice that most of my ideas start out strong, so why not just refresh every 4-5 days? Makes perfect sense.

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UPDATE TUESDAY 10 PM

TOMORROW'S ACTION

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.. I would close longs there and reposition Thursday.

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COMMENT

IVO is saying 1721 in 150 minutes.

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... so by 1:05 AM CT. See you then, space cowboys.

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UPDATES WEDNESDAY 9:10 AM

It is taking the GC route, not XAUUSD. No more updates here.

ALL UPDATES WILL GO HERE UNTIL I GET A NEW MAP OF GC's intentions.

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Click chart or go here:

tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/TPLxGHFI-GOLD-CRASH-REBOOT/

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UPDATE 12:40 AM CT THURSDAY

If we hit XAUUSD 1732 next 24 hours and GC2! Get to 1760, this idea will be finished. I will work on REBOOT 2.5, bc its really just REBOOT 2, but delayed. REBOOT 2 is just this same idea at the top but more zig zag.

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UPDATE 5:25 AM THURSDAY

We havent hit either targets, but Ive closed the first GOLD CRASH REBOOT. I will post updates here until I've mapped out REBOOT PART 2.5.

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The reason is action in GC2!.

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UPDATE THURSDAY 5:35 AM CT

HERE IS 6 MIN CHART

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THIS IS MORE LIKELY, SAME CHART

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UPDATE 6 AM

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THATS IVO FOR XAUUSD

Its saying strong retest. But here is the same for GC1! (not GC2!, its only occasionally useful like 10 days out of the year)

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This is saying shallow test and furious rally. This much we now know: something has really changed last 3 days, futures are really driving prices

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XAUUSD VS GC1 AND GC2

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COMMENT: Please like for support. I forget to ask.

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UPDATE So remember how GC1 lead the way down last week? We will keep thay in mind for late June action.

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UPDATE 12:30 PM

THIS IS CRUNCHING SPOT VS FUTURES. SPOT IS SAYING RETEST THE LOW TOMORROW. BUT FUTURES SAY HIGHER.

1. Orange is 27 day regression set, meaning the set of same-color lines lead into 27 , 25, 23, 21 and so on
2. Purple is 9 day...
3. Gray is 3 day...
4. Red is 1 day...
5. Indicator at the bottom is IVO, basically volume weighted MACD for each line at top (I'm aware you use 2 or 3 lines, in this case it's 40
6. Look at how weak the 3-day IVO is for XAUUSD, its pretty much still negative
7. Not only is GC1! positive is higher than the 9-day, so it's leading
8. GC has been driving prices for a few days now so it's the favorite until something change

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COMMENT: At the first chart at the top, it's should follow the red line, even though it looks closer to the black line.

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UPDATE: THURSDAY 2:22 PM

THERE IS A VERY INTERESTING BINARY FOR NEXT WEEK. BOTH OF THEM SAY SHORT THE HIGH AT NOON - CLOSE FRIDAY. Will post if have time, kind of busy so no promises.

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UPDATE 8:01 PM THURSDAY

Looks like a run at 1737 tomorrow, while GC1! get to1750 maybe higher. Game plan is buy 4 week GLD puts about 2$ ITM. Especially if it can get to 1741-45. Basically zig zagging for a while.

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COMMENT: PRL, PMB and IVO

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UPDATE FRIDAY 8:17 AM CT

Been tracking really well, and again if you've been reading last few days, driven by GC volume and not XAUUSD. It took the GC path predicted yesterday, again. There should be 1 more high later today and it should be shorted.

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CRITICAL UPDATE FRIDAY 8:25 AM CT

This is GC 6 min chart from yesterday. The 1day LRC is under the 3 day so leading down. IVO says not dead but about to die: 1 more high, but not great bet.

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UPDATE FRI 9:03 AM CT

CLOSED ALL MY LONGS. GOING TO TRANCHE IN SHORTS 3 TIMES. NOW AND 11 AM AND 1PM.

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ABSENT A MAJOR CATALYST GOLD COULD GET DESTROYED ON MONDAY

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UPDATE FRI 9:12 AM.

30 MIN CHART LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING 6 FEET UNDER.
BUT MANY TIME FRAMES DISAGREE AND SAYS SIDEWAYS ACTION.
SO ADD IT ALL UP IS 30 POINTS SWING DOWN FOR XAUUSD, 35 FOR GC.

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CHART:

Even though it spiking last few hours, its dying momentum will over whelmed by back ground down trend in IVO. Not immediately, but likely by this time on Monday.

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UPDATE:

IN FOR 2ND TRANCHE. THE HIGHER IT GETS NOW, THE SADDER IT WILL BE MON TUESDAY.

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Posted last night, it would go for 1737 from noon to close. And here we are. What are the odds of spiking up higher? 11% on the weakest angle. HERE:

BUT IT'S DIFFERENT ON THE STRONGEST ANGLE: WILL POST THAT NEXT

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COMMENT: PLEASE CLICK LIKE/FOLLOW FOR SUPPORT

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TYPO LAST CHART: GRAY IS ALMOST* UP.

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2:05 PM I ADDED 3RD TRANCHE SHORT AT 1736 A WHILE A GO. LETS SEE IF IT WORKS LIKE IT SUPPOSE TO.

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UPDATE FRIDAY AFTER MARKET

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UPDATE SATURDAY 3:30 AM

SO THIS MUCH I KNOW NOW. For XAUUSD.
ALL ODDS NOTWITHSTANDING MAJOR NEWS EVENT.

1 We are going down.
2 Mon 1708 ish (top of my head, not verified)
3 Then bounce, then more selling Tuesday
4 Maybe even Wednesday
5 Odds of breaking 1700 90%
6 Odds of breaking 1695 80%
7 Odds of 1685 70%
8 Odds of 1678 65%

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WILL SKIP REBOOT 2.5 AND MAKE REBOOT 3. BECAUSE THE PRICE ACTION DEMANDS IT.

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UPDATE 4:15 AM
FOR ODDS ABOVE 3:30 AM 5 6 7 8
ODDS THE SAME BUT MOVE DATE 7 DAYS FORWARD INTO FOMC WED 6/10/20

WE ARE GOING DOWN, THE ONLY QUESTIONS ARE WHAT ROUTE, HOW MUCH, AND BY WHEN: THIS MUCH I KNOW NOW 1580 BY 7/20 OR MAYBE 8/20 AT LATEST.

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THIS IDEA HAS CLOSED.

I WILL POST REBOOT PART 3: GOLD SILVER MINERS ALL CRASH!!

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WILL POST SUNDAY.

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UPDATE SUNDAY 10:36 AM

IN THE MEAN TIME

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THIS IDEA HAS CLOSED FOR GOOD.

PLEASE FOLLOW REBOOT PART 3: GOLD, SILVER, MINERS ALL CRASH ALITTLE BIT .

CLICK ON CHART OR LINK:

tradingview.com/chart/XAGUSD/4IRTWqCE-REBOOT-PART-3-GOLD-SILVER-MINERS-ALL-CRASH-A-LITTLE-BIT/

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