GOLD's Trajectory: Factors Influencing Its Price Movement

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Following our previous analysis (links provided in the description below), gold continues its upward trajectory, in line with the prevailing trend since the beginning of the year. The recent pullback to the $2295 area appears to have attracted buyers seeking a discounted price, fueling the impressive momentum of this metal. After a brief consolidation period between Thursday and Friday, a bullish breakout occurred, and Friday night saw the price retesting the previous area with another pullback before resuming its ascent.

From a technical perspective, the price has reached the 50% retracement level from the last swing, coinciding with the 38.2% retracement from the previous bottom low. We anticipate a new bullish impulse if Monday brings fresh signals of growth.

In terms of fundamental analysis, investors are looking past the weaker US GDP print, as there is growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay cutting interest rates due to persistent inflationary pressures. This has revived demand for the US Dollar (USD), while a generally positive sentiment in equity markets has further dampened interest in safe-haven assets like gold. Seasonality analysis also suggests that the price may continue to climb over the next month.

However, the downside for gold remains supported as USD bulls may await further cues regarding the Fed's rate-cutting trajectory before making new commitments. Therefore, attention is focused on the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, as this crucial inflation data will heavily influence the Fed's future policy decisions and consequently drive USD demand, shaping the next directional move for gold.


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