Breaking news, an important news that will affect the market! !

According to the news, senior US and Russian officials will meet in Saudi Arabia next week to prepare for the Trump-Putin summit, which will be held at the end of the month at the earliest. The details of the meeting and the list of participants are still being worked out. Saudi Arabia has invited representatives from the United States, Russia and Ukraine to attend the meeting in Riyadh.

According to the report, the goal is to finalize a date for Ramadan, which starts in March.

1. At first glance, this news may not be very relevant to businessmen, but it is not.

There are three major themes dominating the current global financial market:

First, the Trump administration;

Second, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut

Third, the possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine

The market has been hyped for many rounds on the first two points, and the market has become immune to these two factors in the short term (lost interest). The third point is the speculation that has just emerged, and the market has not yet fully priced it. 50% of the factors for the decline of the US dollar this week are due to news from Russia and Ukraine. The market also has a probability expectation for the "possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine", just like the expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. This probability has exceeded 50% this week (30% last week).

2. Judging from the news itself, Trump seems eager to reach an agreement with Russia, prompting Russia and Ukraine to accelerate the ceasefire. It means that the geopolitical game has entered a new stage of "open talks and secret wars", and the market pricing mechanism will switch between risk on/off modes more frequently.

More content:

The location is Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Arabia may mediate in the middle - Saudi Arabia had a tense relationship with the United States before, but recently it has also cooperated with Russia in OPEC+

The United States bypassed Europe and directly contacted Russia at a high level - the two sides may be testing a certain "post-conflict framework", and "interest exchanges" in certain areas are not ruled out (possibly involving energy cooperation or lifting of some sanctions)

3. The subsequent progress of negotiations will have a certain impact on the financial market.

The analysis strategy is as follows:

As far as the crude oil market is concerned, any progress in negotiations may trigger a decline.

For the gold market, if the sudden plunge on Friday night is related to the "increased probability of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine", then there may be further declines in the future.

The agricultural product market may also be a major trading country, because Ukraine is a food exporter, and any ceasefire or agreement may improve food exports and lower prices.

In addition, Russian assets may also be revalued.

It is important to note that the Ramadan time window is mentioned as (March 10-April 9) - history shows that the conflicting parties often reach a temporary ceasefire at this stage. If it fails to achieve this time, it may trigger a reverse bet in the market.
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