XAUUSD | SHORT BREAK BEFORE THE NORTH TRIP?
Gold has been trading in a descending channel since May. But something had to happen after bottom got rejected... unfortunately it was war. Eastern conflict launched XAUUSD to the first checkpoint before the Moon. It broke through semi-channel resistance, static resistance at 1945, main channel upper dynamic resistance and finally stopped just below psychological 2000$.
As you can see on my chart, latest rally from 1809 is very similar to the one from March. Same start and almost the same finish. If "copy" will be correct then we might see correction to 1945 first. Once we are there, most likely scenario (depending on upcoming US data and FOMC decision + uptades on Eastern conflict) will be bounce off from this lvl and preparation of the rocket for retesting -> eventually breaking through the 2k.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5Zlq4Xtf/
On the right side you can see dotted lines with prices, these are Camarilla pivot points based on the weekly candle. In case you don't know, Camarilla points are the better (for most) version of classic pivot points. These are much more accurate since the levels are much more closer to the actual price action. Based on basic Camarilla's strategy, rejected 2005.46 will turn market to a short-term bearish sentiment. Breakout of 2029.91 would take us to retest all time high. Rejected 1956.56 would turn the bias bullish, and finally, breakout of 1932.11 could take us deeper to the south.
Lately, most of the US (bullish for dollar) data was ignored by traders, and Gold kept going higher, along with DXY index. But most importantly, FED members with Jerome Powell on the top, shifted narration to more dovish one. By the time of writing this idea, traders bets 75% that there won't be more hikes this year. 99.9% that upcoming November's meeting will result in another pause (that's why you need to focus on the narration).
Situation in the east is still tense. With warning of ground invasion on the line. Not to mention recent visits of Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak. Those two personas are leaning for the hold of the recent mentioned invasion. It's very important to follow the news and uptades on this topic, since it's a main driver for save-haven metal like Gold.
Hope you'll find something useful in my analysis and opinion. Feel free to share your thoughts and thank you all for reading this! Take care
As you can see on my chart, latest rally from 1809 is very similar to the one from March. Same start and almost the same finish. If "copy" will be correct then we might see correction to 1945 first. Once we are there, most likely scenario (depending on upcoming US data and FOMC decision + uptades on Eastern conflict) will be bounce off from this lvl and preparation of the rocket for retesting -> eventually breaking through the 2k.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/5Zlq4Xtf/
On the right side you can see dotted lines with prices, these are Camarilla pivot points based on the weekly candle. In case you don't know, Camarilla points are the better (for most) version of classic pivot points. These are much more accurate since the levels are much more closer to the actual price action. Based on basic Camarilla's strategy, rejected 2005.46 will turn market to a short-term bearish sentiment. Breakout of 2029.91 would take us to retest all time high. Rejected 1956.56 would turn the bias bullish, and finally, breakout of 1932.11 could take us deeper to the south.
Lately, most of the US (bullish for dollar) data was ignored by traders, and Gold kept going higher, along with DXY index. But most importantly, FED members with Jerome Powell on the top, shifted narration to more dovish one. By the time of writing this idea, traders bets 75% that there won't be more hikes this year. 99.9% that upcoming November's meeting will result in another pause (that's why you need to focus on the narration).
Situation in the east is still tense. With warning of ground invasion on the line. Not to mention recent visits of Joe Biden and Rishi Sunak. Those two personas are leaning for the hold of the recent mentioned invasion. It's very important to follow the news and uptades on this topic, since it's a main driver for save-haven metal like Gold.
Hope you'll find something useful in my analysis and opinion. Feel free to share your thoughts and thank you all for reading this! Take care
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