GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [January 13 - January 17]

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Over the past week, international XAUUSD increased from 2,614 USD/oz to 2,698 USD/oz and closed at 2,688 USD/oz. The main reason is concerns about rising inflation in the US due to President-elect Donald Trump's expansionary fiscal policies, tariffs and tightening immigration policies. Although high interest rates are often detrimental to gold prices, in the context of strong inflation, real interest rates decrease, creating a positive impact on gold prices.

That is also the reason why the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for December 2024 increased by 256,000 jobs, far exceeding Reuters' forecast of 160,000 jobs and surpassing November's revised figure of 227,000 jobs, but gold prices still increased sharply this week.

With the inauguration day (January 20, 2025) of President-elect Donald Trump approaching, it is likely that next week's gold price will still be supported. Because Mr. Trump's expected policies, especially expansionary fiscal policy, tariff policy, and immigration policy, will all have the risk of increasing inflation. In particular, although tariff policy can reduce the US trade deficit, it will push up consumer prices. Tighter immigration policies will increase labor costs, causing product prices to increase, thereby also risking increasing the consumer price index...

Meanwhile, the FED has announced that it may only cut interest rates once this year, or may not even cut interest rates this year, if Mr. Trump's above-mentioned policies push US inflation to skyrocket.

📌Looking at the chart, next week's gold price will likely continue to move upward with the next important resistance levels being 2,725 - 2,790 USD/oz. Meanwhile, the level of 2,585 USD/oz is an important support level for gold prices next week.

Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 2,676 – 2,664USD
Resistance: 2,693 – 2,700USD

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2761 - 2759⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2765

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2649 - 2651⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2645

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ملاحظة

Gold dropped sharply to 2,680 USD/oz

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ملاحظة

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ملاحظة

A stronger US employment report late last week led to an increase in the USD and US government bond yields. However, gold still managed to gain ground on Friday and came close to testing the $2,700 mark.

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ملاحظة

Spot gold stood at 2,670 USD/ounce, up 0.25% on the day.

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ملاحظة

Gold price increased slightly:
- Spot gold is at 2669.36 USD/ounce, increasing thanks to concerns about President-elect Trump's policies and investors adjusting their positions before US inflation data.

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ملاحظة

USD decreased slightly: The strong increase in USD stopped, the market was cautious before US CPI inflation data. The USD fell because the PPI index was lower than expected, pulling US government bond yields down.

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ملاحظة

Spot gold reached 2,680 USD/ounce, up 0.11% on the day.

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ملاحظة

The US CPI index in December increased lower than forecast. This development not only helps calm the sell-off wave in the bond market but also strengthens the belief that the Fed can cut interest rates sooner than expected.