XAUUSD → Where’s the Bottom for Gold?

XAUUSD OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS
- Hawkish Fed speak and resilient US jobs market keep gold upside limited.
- Fed speakers in focus later today.
- Threatening signs as triangle breakout coupled & death cross develops.

XAUUSD FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP
Gold prices have plunged to March levels due to the increasing influence of the Fed's hawkish stance. Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed and a known hawk, suggested that the Fed may raise rates once more and keep them high until 2024.

US GDP in line with expectations but miss on jobless claims data reinforces robust labor market narrative. Positive from dovish perspective: decline in core PCE prices could relieve short-term inflationary concerns. Fed may need to maintain restrictive policy until cracks appear in jobs market. Rest of trading day focused on Fed guidance, including Chair Jerome Powell. After Kashkari's remarks, interest in other Fed officials' views on aggressive monetary policy.

The central bank is expected to hold rates steady, but Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments will be crucial for gold. If there are hints of more rate hikes or prolonged high interest rates, it could negatively impact gold. Any discussion of rate cuts will provide valuable information, with forecasts suggesting they may occur between June and July 2024.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The XAUUSD price action indicates two bearish signs. Firstly, there was a breakout below the 1900.00 psychological level from a recent symmetrical triangle. Additionally, the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average, forming a death cross pattern. Despite the oversold RSI reading, there is potential for further downside, with the swing low at 1858.33 being exposed.

Resistance levels:

1925.06 /50-day MA/200-day MA
1900.00
1884.89

Support levels:

1858.33
1800.00

تعليق:

Gold prices have seen a difficult week as a recovery in the US dollar and rising US bond yields have had a negative impact on the market.

Although gold is facing many difficulties, Kitco News's latest weekly gold survey shows that most market analysts are optimistic that this precious metal will recover in the near future.

تعليق:

🕯 BUY GOLD | 1837 - 1840

🔴 SL: 1832

🟢 TP1: 1845
🟢 TP2: 1850

تم فتح الصفقة:

HIT TP1 + 50pips. Heading to TP2 ✔️✔️✔️

تعليق:

It is possible that gold will reverse this week and the driving force for gold's increase is that the USD has peaked and begun to decline, the precious metal will soon bottom. Falling core inflation helps stabilize US interest rates and the decline in the USD will support the precious metal. Gold needs to return to 1,885 USD/ounce for technical stability and 1,892 USD/ounce to strengthen market confidence.

تعليق:

USD🇺🇸 JOLTs Job Openings (Aug)

Previous: 8.827M
Expect: 8.830M

Current: 9.61M